tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62806514948612757762024-03-05T08:36:15.222-05:00SW Ontario UrbanistNickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-51859252511381219872016-06-03T18:52:00.000-04:002016-06-03T20:25:30.008-04:00Is Toronto's suburban poverty shifting towards lowrise housing?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In the last decade, a lot of attention has been given to the <a href="http://3cities.neighbourhoodchange.ca/">suburbanization of poverty in Toronto</a>. Although the process has been going on for several decades, it has recently reached the point where most of the low income census tracts are in post-WWII neighbourhoods. That's likely due in part to the outwards expansion of poverty following the outwards expansion of Toronto in general, but also due to increased gentrification of the core.<br />
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Most of the media and organizations discussing the issue have been highlighting the concentration of poverty into rental apartment buildings that were built in auto-oriented inner suburbs in the 60s and 70s.<br />
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<a href="http://3cities.neighbourhoodchange.ca/files/2011/05/vertical-poverty-cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3cities.neighbourhoodchange.ca/files/2011/05/vertical-poverty-cover.jpg" /></a></div>
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However, a <a href="http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/documents/2015/12/maps-of-ct-incomes-eight-cmas-2012.pdf">recent series of maps</a> using 2012 taxfiler data suggests that poverty may now be shifting towards more low-rise neighbourhoods in even more distant suburbs of Toronto.<br />
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Here's the map of the current income distribution of Toronto, with census tracts coloured based on median per capita income of adults (aged 16+).<br />
Brown: <60% of CMA average (very low income)<br />
Pink: 60-80% of CMA average (low income)<br />
Beige: 80-120% of CMA average (medium income)<br />
Light Blue: 120-140% of CMA average (high income)<br />
Dark Blue: >140% of CMA average (very high income)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbyBqQCxDwkTP0DlTvjA5IvkbOIm5iCyCt7-27vmPQHHI3jUDhEonK_vBB_5VYhf1LSG3lx_gSuX6P1qPH5ECefz22S6IzstA9-yu2gRExTTaORLuMD8ApsV5d6Ui_1hI3yW1cg5nzLmA/s1600/Income+2010+Toronto+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbyBqQCxDwkTP0DlTvjA5IvkbOIm5iCyCt7-27vmPQHHI3jUDhEonK_vBB_5VYhf1LSG3lx_gSuX6P1qPH5ECefz22S6IzstA9-yu2gRExTTaORLuMD8ApsV5d6Ui_1hI3yW1cg5nzLmA/s640/Income+2010+Toronto+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
I've overlain when the very low income census tracts reached their very low income status. There is a loose trend of very low income areas expanding outwards with time.<br />
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Where it gets interesting is the break-down by unit type.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgffwiLT_comKMOMzZeeNYLtnieAsLq_FAEShDwsEdi7maGn6rPDhYDeJE2Jdxq1TyS8TWtELXmsh8GAtAeCY0ivXMW_i2nf9tErBx8gR7pzSMo7QyRGaS_ws278kdjQeBzkNdwA-8MqNg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2016-06-03+at+6.50.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgffwiLT_comKMOMzZeeNYLtnieAsLq_FAEShDwsEdi7maGn6rPDhYDeJE2Jdxq1TyS8TWtELXmsh8GAtAeCY0ivXMW_i2nf9tErBx8gR7pzSMo7QyRGaS_ws278kdjQeBzkNdwA-8MqNg/s640/Screen+Shot+2016-06-03+at+6.50.03+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The census tracts that reached very low income status before 2000 had virtually no detached SFHs and significantly above average amounts of apartments. However, the census tracts that became very low income between 2005 and 2012 actually had <b>below average</b> amounts of apartment buildings, with above average amounts of townhouses and duplexes (typically houses with basement apartments) and only slightly below average amounts of detached SFHs.<br />
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It's not just a matter of there not being any more census tracts with high percentages of apartment buildings, there are still plenty of those that are not very low income.<br />
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I also modified the map to show the unit type breakdown of Toronto's very low income census tracts.<br />
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Yellow = no apartment buildings<br />
Green = <1/3 of units are in apartment buildings<br />
Light blue = 1/3 to 2/3 of units are in apartment buildings<br />
Dark blue = >2/3 of units are in apartment buildings<br />
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The very low income census tracts in the core and inner suburbs do have a lot of apartments, but further out, not so much. So are most of the apartment dominated census tracts located in the core, so that due to the better location, they are less likely to be very low income? A lot of them are.<br />
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However, not all. The condo neighbourhoods of central North York are not very low income, although it's true that despite further from the core, they still have subway access and many amenities. There are also still census tracts in the NE and NW inner suburbs with a lot of apartments that are merely low income, rather than very low income, such as in Brookhaven-Amesbury, Weston, and a few highrise clusters in south-central Scarborough.<br />
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Richmond Hill, Mississauga and Thornhill also have a fair bit of apartments and condo towers. That's despite being far from downtown, although those are arguably in the "favoured quadrants" of Toronto, and closer to suburban job centres. The apartments in the NE and NW inner suburbs, despite often being beyond the pre-WWII core and away from rapid transit, are still about 45min from Downtown by transit, with decent access to suburban jobs, so it could be worse.<br />
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However, even in the more distant NE and NW suburbs like Brampton and Miliken, there are some neighbourhoods with older condos, apartment buildings and townhouses that have a bit higher per capita incomes than the SFH dominated very low income census tracts of these same communities. Perhaps this is due to a combination of these areas having a relative undersupply of apartment buildings and many basement apartments and multi-generational households?<br />
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Were the last few years a temporary anomaly? Will very low income areas shift back towards apartment dominated suburban neighbourhoods?<br />
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Or is there a more permanent shift taking place? One where although there is an undersupply of SFHs in core neighbourhoods and desirable suburbs, most available land for new SFHs is in lower demand NE and NW suburbs? Or are SFH neighbourhoods simply going to be better able to accommodate lower income people through multi-generational households and basement apartments?</div>
NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-85497234666863648312015-12-04T15:22:00.003-05:002015-12-04T15:22:51.091-05:00Transit for ScarboroughFor anyone following discussions of transit in Toronto, the debate on how to provide transit to Scarborough has been front and centre. Scarborough consists largely of older moderately dense post-WWII suburban neighbourhoods, and has become home to a large portion of Toronto's lower income population in recent decades and has relatively high transit mode share (20-40% in most neighbourhoods). However, it remains relatively disconnected by transit from central Toronto.<br />
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Early plans for Scarborough included two subways with Scarborough Town Centre being a major focus. Scarborough Town Centre was intended to be the downtown of Scarborough, although it has not developed to quite the level initially anticipated. It now consists of a shopping mall surrounded by a few condo towers, office buildings and civic buildings.<br />
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The transit plan was to have one subway line running along Sheppard Ave E connecting Scarborough Town Centre to Downsview, and a rapid transit using somewhat different technology from the rest of the subway system connecting Scarborough Town Centre to the Bloor-Danforth Subway at Kennedy Station and to Malvern called the Scarborough RT.<br />
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The Sheppard Subway was only partially built in 2002, the section from Yonge & Sheppard to University-Spadina subway at Downsview Station, and the section through Scarborough from Don Mills to Scarborough Town Centre unbuilt. The Scarborough RT only built up to Scarborough Town Centre rather than Malvern, and is now in need of replacement for various reasons.<br />
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As a result, there have recently been many different proposals for the construction of rapid transit line extensions and new transit lines to Scarborough. These include extending the Bloor-Danforth Line along the Scarborough RT right of way or perhaps a slightly different route, and extending the Sheppard East subway into Scarborough. One alternative has been do build these as light rail lines, along with additional light rail lines along Markham Road, Kingston Road and Morningside Avenue. Finally there are plans to improve service along the commuter rail lines of Toronto, two of which pass through Scarborough, by increasing frequencies, operating hours (one rail line is rush-hour only) and electrification which could allow for either faster travel or additional stations. This would allow these rail lines to function much more like rapid transit and boost their usefulness to Scarborough residents.<br />
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One major criticism of the subway plan is that the low densities will result in ridership levels too low to justify the high cost of subways, with the existing Sheppard East subway, and sometimes Scarborough RT cited as examples or rapid transit in similar moderate density suburbs with low ridership. Another related criticism is that due to the wider stop spacing (and shorter length due to higher costs) the subway will serve fewer people than LRT due to fewer people within walking distance of stations.<br />
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However, here is a map showing the commuter shed of some of the relevant currently existing transit lines. This is based off the fastest transit route that google recommends for getting from various parts of the city to Yonge and Bloor (more or less downtown). Red is the commuter shed of the Sheppard East subway, light blue is the portion of the commuter shed of the Bloor-Danforth subway that's within Scarborough, and black is the commuter shed for the Scarborough RT.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxHBbO2cEEGHMEU7__KLMl006IAXa-0MUPMs15X2V5KypxSFdv61uu4bcQItFZ-TnCfwBYzUC1sO_ZA_wbXWGGtyW_lJvHkVsJX4em6AXU3pqbp_BgbFS1FhTnMtGZy0FM0pMC0ZBR0PE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-12-04+at+1.41.11+PM.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxHBbO2cEEGHMEU7__KLMl006IAXa-0MUPMs15X2V5KypxSFdv61uu4bcQItFZ-TnCfwBYzUC1sO_ZA_wbXWGGtyW_lJvHkVsJX4em6AXU3pqbp_BgbFS1FhTnMtGZy0FM0pMC0ZBR0PE/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-12-04+at+1.41.11+PM.png" width="640" /></a><br />
So clearly for most people in Scarborough, the Bloor-Danforth Subway is the best option. For most people in Scarborough, this doesn't involve walking to the subway, but rather getting on a bus and then transferring onto the subway. Note how small Sheppard East's commuter shed is by comparison, even including the portions within North York. This suggests that density plays only a relatively small role in Sheppard East's low ridership, and that how it fits into the overall transit network is bigger problem.<br />
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How so? The commuter shed is largely restricted by competing bus routes as Sheppard East functions merely as a feeder line for the Yonge Subway. For areas near Finch Ave E or Steeles Ave E, it's faster to take the bus along these roads and transfer onto the Yonge Subway at Finch Station than to take the bus and transfer onto the Sheppard Subway and then transfer again onto the Yonge Subway. The 199 Finch Rocket seems to be especially competitive, being an express route. South of the 401, it is again faster to take various bus routes to the Yonge Subway directly rather than the Sheppard Subway, and in most of Scarborough, it's faster to take various buses down to Kennedy, Warden or Victoria Park stations on the Bloor-Danforth Line. Further out towards the suburban outskirts in York Region, Durham Region of the furthest reaches of Scarborough, GO commuter buses and trains tend to be more competitive.<br />
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The problem is that the Sheppard Subway is too short to make sense as a subway line, especially being in a relatively low density setting far from downtown with relatively few major destinations along the Sheppard Subway, especially when it comes to major destinations that are difficult to get to by car. While subways are generally faster than buses, they partly achieve this by making fewer stops. Since North York already has the Yonge Subway, the speed advantage is the Sheppard Subway is only realized over a short distance, limiting the amount of time saved over buses.<br />
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For example, if you want to from Finch and Leslie to Yonge and Sheppard, you can either travel 4 km east at bus speeds and 2 km south at subway speeds (Yonge Subway), or 2 km south at bus speeds and 4 km east at subway speeds (Sheppard Subway). So the difference is 2km at bus speeds vs 2km at subway speeds. However, taking the Sheppard Subway will involve walking more to reach transit and an additional transfer. Or if you happen to live really close to the arterial intersections, walking distance might be similarly short, but you can take the 199 Rocket which is almost as fast as the subway but requires one less transfer.<br />
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However, these arguments don't necessarily apply to a Bloor-Danforth extension further into Scarborough since there are currently no major competing rapid transit routes anywhere close by. As a result, if none of the other transit proposals for Scarborough are built, the existing commuter shed within Scarborough will be better served. The areas from Eglinton southwards in SW Scarborough would feed into the existing portions of the Bloor-Danforth subway and so quality of service would be similar. However, central Scarborough around Lawrence, Ellesmere and Sheppard would be better served. A Scarborough subway extension could even "poach" riders from North Scarborough who are currently taking buses along Finch and Steeles to the overcrowded Yonge Subway.<br />
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When you include transit riders taking the bus to subway stations rather than just walking, a Scarborough subway would impact the entire area of Scarborough, a much larger population than Sheppard East's commuter shed, at about 600,000 people vs less than 100,000.<br />
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Will this be enough of a difference to justify a subway? Hard to say, people would probably be more likely to take the subway or other rapid transit if it's within walking distance rather than having to take a feeder bus. Still, feeder buses are certainly important. The existing subway stations in Scarborough like Warden and Kennedy which have feeder bus routes get several times higher ridership than many stations in central Toronto that are higher density but lack major feeder routes. It also doesn't mean that the Bloor-Danforth Extension should be made unnecessarily expensive just to be able to say it's a subway. If the existing Scarborough RT infrastructure can be used in a way that will significantly reduce costs over a tunnel-bored subway along McCowan, I think it should be. As long as the route is grade-separated, it doesn't matter that much if it's underground or not.<br />
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There is a big if though, which is "if no-other significant competing rapid transit routes are built". So if the Ontario government remains committed to upgrading the commuter rail network, or funding can be gotten for multiple Scarborough light rail lines, a Scarborough Subway may not be necessary. It's important to have good communication between Toronto and the provincial and federal governments.<br />
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At the same time, if the Scarborough Subway does turn out to be unneeded, it's also important to ask if a light rail line along the Scarborough RT corridor makes sense, and whether multiple alternative lines could do the job better. If there are several competing lines, a transfer required at Kennedy Station, and short stop spacing, usage might be relatively low. This is especially true when considering a good chunk of the Scarborough RT goes through low density industrial areas with restrictions to redevelopment into high density TOD offices and housing, whereas most of the Sheppard East Subway corridor is seeing a great deal of intensification.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-8726105127718210832015-09-14T00:29:00.000-04:002015-09-15T17:52:53.673-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth - Raleigh and the Inland EmpireIn <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/usa-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">part 6</a> of this series, I found that, out of the 1,000,000+ population MSAs, Raleigh and the Inland Empire experienced the most urban core growth relative to the size of their metro areas.<br />
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This is a bit surprising, because neither city is particularly well known for urban infill. These two cities were then mostly followed by the "usual suspects" of DC, Portland, Seattle, Boston, Miami and New York.<br />
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One main goal of all these comparisons was to see if I could devise a set of consistent rules to compare urban cores by, which would match relatively closely what people might subjectively view as the cores of those cities.<br />
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In the case Inland Empire, the boundaries of the urban cores <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/usa-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">seem reasonable at first glance</a>, so how come the core is growing so fast and yet does not get much attention for urban growth? The Inland Empire is a collection of population centers inland from Los Angeles, with loose ties to LA. It has seen its Hispanic population grow significantly, perhaps in part as a result of lack of space/affordability in LA. Hispanic households are on average larger than non-Hispanic households, so I decided to see if the Inland Empire's urban core saw an increase in household sizes.<br />
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Stats for the Inland Empire's urban core<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcK3kv8heXBC0KuZ4vUz7SW3QC3wy08hgCXWQESaHOYE1lgGNtm6NZn_oyUCzLHtvf1VkkNIObAs5deSE4tlBKCPaG1PW3zOXr2eISYN_74WugKKD1eagIXRfuR-ecJIIHJVAvdG3-aHQ/s1600/IE+Core+stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcK3kv8heXBC0KuZ4vUz7SW3QC3wy08hgCXWQESaHOYE1lgGNtm6NZn_oyUCzLHtvf1VkkNIObAs5deSE4tlBKCPaG1PW3zOXr2eISYN_74WugKKD1eagIXRfuR-ecJIIHJVAvdG3-aHQ/s1600/IE+Core+stats.png" /></a></div>
So, whatever the cause, household size increases have been the main driver of population growth in the urban core. This is in contrast with most other urban cores, where household sizes decreased slightly. If the Inland Empire experienced a slight decrease in household sizes like most other urban cores, the urban core population growth would have still been above average, but probably not in the top 10 and certainly not #2.<br />
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How about Raleigh?<br />
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The growth wasn't due to household size increases, which stayed more or less constant.<br />
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Some of the growth was at the southern edge of the city. It's greenfield development, so not true infill, but was relatively close to the core, allowing the census tracts that contained them to meet the mode share/density criteria. New subdivisions are highlighted in white, with the white lines showing the boundaries of the census block groups that contain them.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmk8T9wb1o_gbNJ0jyvo5Pyy7_zNnZ6hXS15pHjn9H2_p6mwWkCIp9zEelunjDo3qBQMU3f60-o0Ys1T-uCzAMiZZLmYz_LhQCLxnlvRFJoUnmhZ5vOFSVUGtVnbb5PlveJjaSetyhGag/s1600/Mode+density+Raleigh+suburban.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmk8T9wb1o_gbNJ0jyvo5Pyy7_zNnZ6hXS15pHjn9H2_p6mwWkCIp9zEelunjDo3qBQMU3f60-o0Ys1T-uCzAMiZZLmYz_LhQCLxnlvRFJoUnmhZ5vOFSVUGtVnbb5PlveJjaSetyhGag/s640/Mode+density+Raleigh+suburban.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Here's an example of a typical subdivision<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgowZUh4dzxDIoqoMJSZkxtwu75Ax02JehiZjbZxSFfMlBT3tZ5w9ou2F1XngNOclZqoxdTX9q0pKPNo-tKedQY-IRRnAbIdYOpBBFfNRzbO0i9SGtM6MNBwWifQdpLyrdH9OxJl2Sytdg/s1600/Raleigh+south+greenfield.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgowZUh4dzxDIoqoMJSZkxtwu75Ax02JehiZjbZxSFfMlBT3tZ5w9ou2F1XngNOclZqoxdTX9q0pKPNo-tKedQY-IRRnAbIdYOpBBFfNRzbO0i9SGtM6MNBwWifQdpLyrdH9OxJl2Sytdg/s640/Raleigh+south+greenfield.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Although lot sizes are smaller than the older suburban development beside it, it is still single family greenfield development at the periphery with an auto oriented street network.<br />
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The largest subdivision is a bit different and has some New Urbanist elements. The street network is better connected and there are townhouses mixed in with the single family homes. It's called Renaissance Park and its website advertises proximity to the urban amenities of Downtown Raleigh, though it assumes residents will drive there. There is also mention of commercial and residential properties side by side, but unless that's referring to the strip malls just outside the subdivision, I'm not sure what they're talking about. I suppose having those strip malls nearby is better than nothing though, and it ias the reason why the community has a Walkscore of about 50, instead of the <30 Walkscore typical of suburban Raleigh.<br />
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All in all, the census block groups that contain these greenfield developments saw their population grow by 5,597, out of the 15,236 population increase in Raleigh's "urban core". That leaves 9,639 in population growth that could be described as resulting from infill. This would cause Raleigh to drop to a still quite respectable #4 for urban core population increase relative to MSA size.<br />
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So what does this infill look like? Here are the census block groups ranked by population growth.<br />
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1. The North Carolina State University Campus saw its population increase by 1582. The only residential development that seems to have taken place there is the Wolf Village student residences, circled below.<br />
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2. Downtown Raleigh grew by 976 people. There are a few smaller apartment and townhouse developments, but these two midrises seem to be the biggest new construction residential developments (based on historical aerial comparisons).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQTREpa5QO3TuWoobxmZ9mjTJBNRkDezodgYg5DJWMxXGubKEiFPTpDRIwpwHoGFh8NbwjGOVRdRXjXEznwBGFSAC5h1dSjM6SiU1I3fusDOonavx6xgIvR3itA_hrOGLy3jv3CAHgZU/s1600/Raleigh+Downtown.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQTREpa5QO3TuWoobxmZ9mjTJBNRkDezodgYg5DJWMxXGubKEiFPTpDRIwpwHoGFh8NbwjGOVRdRXjXEznwBGFSAC5h1dSjM6SiU1I3fusDOonavx6xgIvR3itA_hrOGLy3jv3CAHgZU/s640/Raleigh+Downtown.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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3. The census block group that grew the next fastest was in northern Raleigh, growing by 785 people, mostly as a result of these auto-oriented townhouse and lowrise apartment infill developments.<br />
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4. Next is a block group in Cary that grew by 610 people, the main development seems to have been the townhouses in the centre of this image. That's not enough to account for the entirety of the population increase, so household sizes must have gone up as well.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtNlm_2G4yzkqcKeGkDhEp8DOhb3DKvyA3szbiSYkYbnvqXRD4JSjXKYZjA90deJULE1NQabOhpW6WMajLd5_5XqTU7OX9pC7QrHRxM5WCsJVz3OXCVATIs9HmkE-goNBJOpgS8WSK6RY/s1600/Raleigh+Cary+townhouses.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtNlm_2G4yzkqcKeGkDhEp8DOhb3DKvyA3szbiSYkYbnvqXRD4JSjXKYZjA90deJULE1NQabOhpW6WMajLd5_5XqTU7OX9pC7QrHRxM5WCsJVz3OXCVATIs9HmkE-goNBJOpgS8WSK6RY/s640/Raleigh+Cary+townhouses.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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5. In the census block group with the 5th most growth, the infill has mostly been townhouse and apartment complexes, although there was also one cul-de-sac of SFHs (not shown). There are some offices just to the north, and some shopping centres north of those, about a 15min walk away. This block group grew by 582 people.<br />
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6. Then there's another block group in North Raleigh that grew by 505 people, with this auto-oriented apartment complex being the only noticeable new development.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm0zfe-D-iJBIfmsc7_jQ77IZkKrokIkLt9rc_wax4O3wrPgLycD2P2Df3_0BV74-Htu0yKig_NGriHWbvBkR-NB6C4GHsby5KeU5rz2vea7cDpINFwwVl-ISI2Pt7ZkNOeK-aGyJ89Hs/s1600/Raleigh+north+apartments.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm0zfe-D-iJBIfmsc7_jQ77IZkKrokIkLt9rc_wax4O3wrPgLycD2P2Df3_0BV74-Htu0yKig_NGriHWbvBkR-NB6C4GHsby5KeU5rz2vea7cDpINFwwVl-ISI2Pt7ZkNOeK-aGyJ89Hs/s640/Raleigh+north+apartments.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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7. That's followed by a block group in NE Raleigh that grew by 484 people thanks to this new townhouse complex. Since it's at least near some shopping centres, the walkscore is about 60.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4M3eCdYwd_bzFbbqa4VgbSLyJBAmdP_GiebNFkQOG3Vx1p2B916_uHqTTySRenF5Wd3NMWa6bCf3SSVzhSlkcpvbBt8o7Vl9fhiZM9JPOPI82dMYO36RiNZy4iaQTQwwIqWvyFZUYwS4/s1600/Raleigh+NE+townhouses.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4M3eCdYwd_bzFbbqa4VgbSLyJBAmdP_GiebNFkQOG3Vx1p2B916_uHqTTySRenF5Wd3NMWa6bCf3SSVzhSlkcpvbBt8o7Vl9fhiZM9JPOPI82dMYO36RiNZy4iaQTQwwIqWvyFZUYwS4/s640/Raleigh+NE+townhouses.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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8. Next, a block group in SE Raleigh that grew by 435 people. The main new development seems to be this auto-oriented infill subdivision of single family homes and lowrise apartments.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6wjmc8VRXpGxJMbz4cWTcKB6S1FpgAnblyVZMDfncEU_4J4oeRvBZcB_6NO0eJvzWszdgVh8q_mVFrUuoOjI_H4N1f5Biar5KNVE30azNbG2hmz8oXanI0POp_ddcYsQAmghGFJ8kL0/s1600/Raleigh+SE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6wjmc8VRXpGxJMbz4cWTcKB6S1FpgAnblyVZMDfncEU_4J4oeRvBZcB_6NO0eJvzWszdgVh8q_mVFrUuoOjI_H4N1f5Biar5KNVE30azNbG2hmz8oXanI0POp_ddcYsQAmghGFJ8kL0/s640/Raleigh+SE.png" width="640" /></a></div>
That block group also saw a few homes built on small cul-de-sacs off the old Raleigh street grid. <br />
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9. The next blog group is just next to #3 and grew by 421 people. The main new development was this auto-oriented infill subdivision of single family homes and apartments.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjay0SbLxMjmNph7cXsWIA_GvkhPQLqXAAJtShlYZvJnqkBBLnm0W0imp4cZmMTWV-hxemMdB7t5WlZML0G0feoip8FITgjviMhxqbSQAvjbyl6S7TPPbFmxGpZAXhMfDLInr-b4mdh6Jg/s1600/Raleigh+north+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjay0SbLxMjmNph7cXsWIA_GvkhPQLqXAAJtShlYZvJnqkBBLnm0W0imp4cZmMTWV-hxemMdB7t5WlZML0G0feoip8FITgjviMhxqbSQAvjbyl6S7TPPbFmxGpZAXhMfDLInr-b4mdh6Jg/s640/Raleigh+north+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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10. The ninth fastest growing block group was just west of downtown Raleigh, around the North Boylan neighbourhood, growing by 415 people. The growth seems to have been in the form of midrises like these.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioYbE3emonXW9_CRgbBcaoCBepoZf_4dwV06SIcVF-ZhkuQ1qzffoakf4-FvgVfWjramvrAiDB-BV04q-5UKvH080gcx3b607M_bC1FD-6U3_1gCM9unyv0FUb5ojJHiZ0fwX01SEJMXs/s1600/Raleigh+DT+West.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="624" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioYbE3emonXW9_CRgbBcaoCBepoZf_4dwV06SIcVF-ZhkuQ1qzffoakf4-FvgVfWjramvrAiDB-BV04q-5UKvH080gcx3b607M_bC1FD-6U3_1gCM9unyv0FUb5ojJHiZ0fwX01SEJMXs/s640/Raleigh+DT+West.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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11. The next block group grew by 389 people. Most of the development has been near a cluster of auto-oriented retail and offices, consisting of a cluster of townhouses, lowrise apartments and small lot SFH (looks a bit like townhouses in the aerial). Despite the auto-oriented nature, the close proximity to these amenities still makes for a walkscore of about 60, which is well above the Raleigh average.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinaPUraOAK2YqC_k5JlCy_Da-v_n4b9kW8X-6Pir0BCcxo1-lLsK7vpxM951wZV6GGMKagFxmdUg7VJilYZ3UqgRDoYxmIuOwCJq7B1FquOLSgYYdVKhugZ6Cs23vKYOd2uB2RTjqnulA/s1600/Raleigh+West+townhouses.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinaPUraOAK2YqC_k5JlCy_Da-v_n4b9kW8X-6Pir0BCcxo1-lLsK7vpxM951wZV6GGMKagFxmdUg7VJilYZ3UqgRDoYxmIuOwCJq7B1FquOLSgYYdVKhugZ6Cs23vKYOd2uB2RTjqnulA/s640/Raleigh+West+townhouses.png" width="640" /></a></div>
There's also a smaller SFH infill subdivision in a more remote setting further NE in the same block group.<br />
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12. The next census block group is in an upscale inner ring neighbourhood, and grew by 375 people. This development seems to be the main source of growth, of the two apartment buildings, the one with the small parking lot in front (on the left) has some ground floor retail.<br />
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13. This block group is in Cary, west of its town centre, and grew by 360 people, mostly thanks to this townhouse development, which was not quite complete in 2010, but appears to be in this more recent aerial.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHb8z9legP6CRx9y-EBZDBuqJlNAO8JuZ6tnXwpj2Wec5aRhtfT0IXHksP_PfqKhaLHWSZ2VfZKaqkXg0hKN58C9iqqfDaT5XFRGJXq5EInIm0qP8t6y335TMYBM2TbC-aTDMpx_0dov8/s1600/Raleigh+Cary+West.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHb8z9legP6CRx9y-EBZDBuqJlNAO8JuZ6tnXwpj2Wec5aRhtfT0IXHksP_PfqKhaLHWSZ2VfZKaqkXg0hKN58C9iqqfDaT5XFRGJXq5EInIm0qP8t6y335TMYBM2TbC-aTDMpx_0dov8/s640/Raleigh+Cary+West.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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14. The growth here (+342) was mostly the result of a townhouse development in a highly auto-oriented setting (walkscore of 9).<br />
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15. This block group is near #3 and #9. Townhouses and apartments were built in an auto-oriented setting, with the census block group growing by 323 people.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFgldPzTxVl_UhW4-HShNtsAMfdej-0gyfOrcP2NFxsZBKHqhbTXt-o6EnCS2izl5nEAJeeUhq3AwLkV-zFkxXUsNJr282_m0PXVGzfS8HJ5CwHOGwxdLHDKuqerPOTYunbtpm7KO6jXA/s1600/Raleigh+North+4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFgldPzTxVl_UhW4-HShNtsAMfdej-0gyfOrcP2NFxsZBKHqhbTXt-o6EnCS2izl5nEAJeeUhq3AwLkV-zFkxXUsNJr282_m0PXVGzfS8HJ5CwHOGwxdLHDKuqerPOTYunbtpm7KO6jXA/s640/Raleigh+North+4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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These fifteen block groups and the four fringe block groups show further up account for most of the infill group in Raleigh's "urban core". The remainder of the urban core grew by just 857 people.<br />
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Raleigh-Cary is a very suburban metropolitan area. The part of the metro area that is even remotely urban is very small, and while it is growing at a moderate pace, only a small fraction of the metro area's growth is taking place there.<br />
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Aside from that, this post shows that there is some suburban infill. While auto-oriented for now, perhaps it can help provide the density needed to support better retail and transit options that are accessible by foot. As for the growth on Raleigh's southern fringe, it is at least close to downtown, which means it can support downtown businesses, and be a short auto commute away. And the distances are short enough that getting to downtown by bus or bike would be feasible if the infrastructure is in place.<br />
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The rest of the growth, a population increase of 318,000 or 95% of the population growth, took place in census tracts that either had 2000 densities of less than 1,694 pop/sq mi, or auto commute mode share of more than 93.2%, or both.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-26985533813798303592015-08-31T19:09:00.000-04:002015-08-31T19:09:01.835-04:00USA MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 7<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/usa-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">Last post</a> looked at an alternative definition of urban cores, taking into account 2000 mode shares and densities in addition to 1960 densities for determining what is included.<br />
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In that post, the cities that saw the biggest net change in urban core population as a result of the modified definition were shown. Here urban core maps of other cities that saw very large relative increases in what the urban core includes.<br />
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Raleigh<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhszwN042S62wFhdqx5xj6lSDRbEQZ2BgsIeAyVnznmk16ryRmg7vftVR5z1bOKm7qg-lNdJIFwIh4I6SpfnQMIySJ_OwReYV96xGDcma45VKOYLyeEkguwNIvxFARxTqapVjxK_luwd7I/s1600/Mode+density+Raleigh.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="421" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhszwN042S62wFhdqx5xj6lSDRbEQZ2BgsIeAyVnznmk16ryRmg7vftVR5z1bOKm7qg-lNdJIFwIh4I6SpfnQMIySJ_OwReYV96xGDcma45VKOYLyeEkguwNIvxFARxTqapVjxK_luwd7I/s640/Mode+density+Raleigh.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Austin<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjalOvVXUP5ueAtjkZoh9GdZ3TzUMFSYZ11oKEWcyRbPwOZDWgw-PE-PUlHOHg-azSjyxrW5u8nS_OoriRCeWsrmQEkHON6B937D2PtQgmQ8RIwqK60U_sf0vOit2iomdljBEaU845PNog/s1600/density+mode+Austin.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjalOvVXUP5ueAtjkZoh9GdZ3TzUMFSYZ11oKEWcyRbPwOZDWgw-PE-PUlHOHg-azSjyxrW5u8nS_OoriRCeWsrmQEkHON6B937D2PtQgmQ8RIwqK60U_sf0vOit2iomdljBEaU845PNog/s640/density+mode+Austin.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Oklahoma City <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizeGnBUnNZCF_36DddEsH0Xbks91ZY6HjCKdssljN7ePG8r2WsAuSzxUWv-AzcteVFwuQvh7r8TQ3j4ar-wqfupq1bnF9w8xFMc3MM198_rDG_TsZqWpUXBqbNdzlgCr1xYLykJ_PhdF4/s1600/Mode+density+OKC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizeGnBUnNZCF_36DddEsH0Xbks91ZY6HjCKdssljN7ePG8r2WsAuSzxUWv-AzcteVFwuQvh7r8TQ3j4ar-wqfupq1bnF9w8xFMc3MM198_rDG_TsZqWpUXBqbNdzlgCr1xYLykJ_PhdF4/s640/Mode+density+OKC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Jacksonville<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRRARAnxd_dt0H2sKD2iRDYti5Q4LUAM95gzW1_QpHM5_M6xKKWPdliFcBe70EUSlHOybE2XElrI1Cz6MWc5FMqmc7S3fskDWDeDLYgCiH_UMPID1j1RsX5QIvV2HSrG1mPkzJwQ2Zl7Q/s1600/Mode+density+Jax.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRRARAnxd_dt0H2sKD2iRDYti5Q4LUAM95gzW1_QpHM5_M6xKKWPdliFcBe70EUSlHOybE2XElrI1Cz6MWc5FMqmc7S3fskDWDeDLYgCiH_UMPID1j1RsX5QIvV2HSrG1mPkzJwQ2Zl7Q/s640/Mode+density+Jax.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
Nashville<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSJBaHou0mZwPoKL0MYFdEHFgUTcQk7Y7nLCgSblUYnBJAbL-ozUMf3_tDpZPnkVEt7kwZOiV-g4BawW7I8FQYD0JLNkVscOkppjiA6eYNjVjepxM8n3ZdiujMns9xUZkYcjq6zas5adc/s1600/Mode+density+Nashville.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSJBaHou0mZwPoKL0MYFdEHFgUTcQk7Y7nLCgSblUYnBJAbL-ozUMf3_tDpZPnkVEt7kwZOiV-g4BawW7I8FQYD0JLNkVscOkppjiA6eYNjVjepxM8n3ZdiujMns9xUZkYcjq6zas5adc/s640/Mode+density+Nashville.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Sacramento<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrpYkNxEVW0gycKyEmPZT2NDrCrrW72G__f68cXnnU0shPIKr75fvO9nazktW-o5YoptxnVUFwmKWalimKeQWRXV3RZl_gHjVfo4Ssv_Y5YjCKZys6cU6JlbU34QFIvkQ4ZmvhIdYjVlg/s1600/Mode+density+Sacramento.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrpYkNxEVW0gycKyEmPZT2NDrCrrW72G__f68cXnnU0shPIKr75fvO9nazktW-o5YoptxnVUFwmKWalimKeQWRXV3RZl_gHjVfo4Ssv_Y5YjCKZys6cU6JlbU34QFIvkQ4ZmvhIdYjVlg/s640/Mode+density+Sacramento.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Hampton Roads<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAkLBz3VBy7hOEJvLlC3kVFAP9ujb8H8oxDskq5joiA1UlptdwqtaKYfnikgd1EVYEu9wR4p-LobP3ZkkRIN1gFHKsKpJJV2_Qv94MZscAH1ddG5N71A8o2uM7AZrIWKQ6gde_mqNN45o/s1600/Mode+density+Hampton.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAkLBz3VBy7hOEJvLlC3kVFAP9ujb8H8oxDskq5joiA1UlptdwqtaKYfnikgd1EVYEu9wR4p-LobP3ZkkRIN1gFHKsKpJJV2_Qv94MZscAH1ddG5N71A8o2uM7AZrIWKQ6gde_mqNN45o/s640/Mode+density+Hampton.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Richmond<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmx2Zntk_TWaCV5Xl6PZxD4Nd6E60rXNWegeRKLds1zgRq9tEkRPii46qYvtLs1vSZHmfAwGTNF1ZAd7Rt64wRWjLeJehQMlrOSOaZsXjrk4mUqva9c0WPidqQJPezQnfvjwWONzsSgZQ/s1600/Mode+density+Richmond.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmx2Zntk_TWaCV5Xl6PZxD4Nd6E60rXNWegeRKLds1zgRq9tEkRPii46qYvtLs1vSZHmfAwGTNF1ZAd7Rt64wRWjLeJehQMlrOSOaZsXjrk4mUqva9c0WPidqQJPezQnfvjwWONzsSgZQ/s640/Mode+density+Richmond.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
Kansas City<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8a8FoSaS5PCst8T835ht7IkuxLs4SWPPcUIWPDZKXM8oVP0Vur2TrAPnUU5ib78Im11Rw0pyyCfUeQCRcmFyLxrW72r7enLzzbwTUBoGpP0WtyXwCve1NQbvQfTisl0YsA3NDWbx2_Vs/s1600/Mode+density+KC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8a8FoSaS5PCst8T835ht7IkuxLs4SWPPcUIWPDZKXM8oVP0Vur2TrAPnUU5ib78Im11Rw0pyyCfUeQCRcmFyLxrW72r7enLzzbwTUBoGpP0WtyXwCve1NQbvQfTisl0YsA3NDWbx2_Vs/s640/Mode+density+KC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
Birmingham<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPZvuLiVF9vd8aUZOauTQSTRIfwm4Cu0qqw8SiWlWQNcsRfcnrxRTW1oAWQE4KFJmc5diLymiy5qhMNx6rL29YOLNgi25OHs3PXbETZzdeVdvgfysaM-cYVW1KVWMg8OdwI-pN6tbLlk/s1600/Mode+density+bghm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsPZvuLiVF9vd8aUZOauTQSTRIfwm4Cu0qqw8SiWlWQNcsRfcnrxRTW1oAWQE4KFJmc5diLymiy5qhMNx6rL29YOLNgi25OHs3PXbETZzdeVdvgfysaM-cYVW1KVWMg8OdwI-pN6tbLlk/s640/Mode+density+bghm.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-18758960162165685672015-08-27T00:19:00.000-04:002016-11-05T13:44:03.283-04:00USA MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 6<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
In earlier posts, I tried to measure urban core growth by defining urban cores using <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">distance from city hall</a> and <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000_25.html">1960 densities</a>.<br />
<br />
The disadvantage of looking at areas that had a certain density in 1960 (5,000 pop/sq mi in this case) is that they often correspond to a very small part of the newer sunbelt metro areas. Although it's true that sunbelt metro areas are typically less urban, they still have post-war suburbs that are centrally located relative to job centers and have higher proportions of apartments and higher transit use than more far flung suburbs. In addition, there are efforts to urbanize some suburban areas near office parks and transit in metro areas like Atlanta.<br />
<br />
Also, while many of these sunbelt cities are in the top 51 MSAs today (those with over 1,000,000 people), they were a long way from being top 51 in 1960. Some were just small towns with small town densities, so in cities like Raleigh and Charlotte, you could have neighbourhoods that were built pre-1960 but at densities below 5,000 pop/sq mi.<br />
<br />
In this post, I'll modify the criteria to expand the urban cores of sunbelt cities so that they contain a proportion of the metro that is more comparable to those of the cores of older cities.<br />
<br />
Mainly, I'll allow census tracts to qualify as urban if the non-auto mode share and density is above the metro area average. I've also included census tracts that have below average densities but have significantly higher than average non-auto commute mode share and vice versa (details at end of post). Where this is still insufficient to expand the urban core to 20% of the MSA population, I'll also include census tracts with 1960 densities of over 3,000 pop/sq mi.<br />
<br />
Here are the results.<br />
<br />
The cities are ranked according to the amount of urban core growth relative to their 2000 MSA population.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw4xNXPXEpiAPFBr8ApkZY865e_Rd3ZXdPhC21jdWs3AHRIJ6M-tOmFsw0hKqGZsewvwKFhoYbSdlZO_5bZ-CsNPu5wsv8pPf2ti-OXdBdVrXbD2UE8aSCai6Mat9t5T-TQuFVlfjBu0o/s1600/Mode+density+cores.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw4xNXPXEpiAPFBr8ApkZY865e_Rd3ZXdPhC21jdWs3AHRIJ6M-tOmFsw0hKqGZsewvwKFhoYbSdlZO_5bZ-CsNPu5wsv8pPf2ti-OXdBdVrXbD2UE8aSCai6Mat9t5T-TQuFVlfjBu0o/s640/Mode+density+cores.png" width="512" /></a></div>
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</div>
The top cities are mostly coastal cities known for dense urban infill like Portland, D.C. and New York but there are a couple exceptions, like the #1 Raleigh and #2 Riverside-San Bernardino. Although these two cities have not had exceptional downtown growth, they have had growth throughout most of the metro area - downtown, inner suburbs and outer suburbs. Population growth in the downtown adjacent neighbourhoods and inner suburbs of these cities is a big part of the reason why they ranked so high.<br />
<br />
Compared to the areas defined based purely on 1960 densities, many cities have seen the size of their urban cores expanded significantly, so here's some maps of the cities where the boundaries changed the most (in terms of absolute increase in population included). Again, the format is<br />
<br />
MSA name<br />
Urban core population change (rank)<br />
Urban core % population change (rank)<br />
Urban core population change relative to 2000 population of entire MSA (rank)<br />
<br />
Dallas-Forth Worth <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWswSXQgKEr3H9mFK9mw2LnM2FoTc8pr6cIjr3Y3vrk04rOlDQWU7D13Pdho4_LYFSCDiWRkECWsat2C2whxN7UpTkP-5k2vYScDrcQwKxB97D-hgV09Rx8map-4rwGVu99N95awQ0o7Q/s1600/Mode+density+DFW.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWswSXQgKEr3H9mFK9mw2LnM2FoTc8pr6cIjr3Y3vrk04rOlDQWU7D13Pdho4_LYFSCDiWRkECWsat2C2whxN7UpTkP-5k2vYScDrcQwKxB97D-hgV09Rx8map-4rwGVu99N95awQ0o7Q/s640/Mode+density+DFW.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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South Florida<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiojTGCHSA5ZDLs2Lo7SFv9_NKe2_U28gqa5n7JcFXG3QUPrpwaPUnn56ethyphenhyphenW1IYozwRUvLv5iewSAzgqHyoaj7F6-0qQuhtWgl5VOsf7fBYU-R2VBdbO8Rh8cRXoYxLSXIOk5FsAL5Tc/s1600/Mode+density+S+Florida.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiojTGCHSA5ZDLs2Lo7SFv9_NKe2_U28gqa5n7JcFXG3QUPrpwaPUnn56ethyphenhyphenW1IYozwRUvLv5iewSAzgqHyoaj7F6-0qQuhtWgl5VOsf7fBYU-R2VBdbO8Rh8cRXoYxLSXIOk5FsAL5Tc/s640/Mode+density+S+Florida.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Houston<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSKPRP2fDGauh6U__Gm7TeHvaxqPUv_MMmDMytDnCPOVW8bI8fkenjABJVFuVmcIZOOQ0GvJBEA9fxphMTBS8EByTwhsFchtDEjb468caSXfZ_AgrKxGo3YgFTnGZof8ze8HOW2BKWS2w/s1600/Mode+density+Houston.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSKPRP2fDGauh6U__Gm7TeHvaxqPUv_MMmDMytDnCPOVW8bI8fkenjABJVFuVmcIZOOQ0GvJBEA9fxphMTBS8EByTwhsFchtDEjb468caSXfZ_AgrKxGo3YgFTnGZof8ze8HOW2BKWS2w/s640/Mode+density+Houston.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Atlanta<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXqiaFHDg4b07nTP8lCzTZuA0waggTk4oj1J2lyTjAaoPeADYvp-l7-YpoMVRqVqdOqIKROj9xaC_74hcLluLAoBbCUjFwegWbipyBUM-SmmlKSKeOrSFpXJxChGiy2FnzeJPwwhZVoCM/s1600/Mode+density+Atlanta2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXqiaFHDg4b07nTP8lCzTZuA0waggTk4oj1J2lyTjAaoPeADYvp-l7-YpoMVRqVqdOqIKROj9xaC_74hcLluLAoBbCUjFwegWbipyBUM-SmmlKSKeOrSFpXJxChGiy2FnzeJPwwhZVoCM/s640/Mode+density+Atlanta2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Inland Empire<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggoJnh6DziFcRi-uTDS8SrJOar8RJWSID3UikINkBfEw-KLR043AoaJgKG1csGVQJCyCetnn1_tGECwOu-zSob8lhLV6Kre78-rKujdN19CAaZIvwSzrcOVOEeye88Tk5v-oyGbSBTxdw/s1600/Mode+density+IE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggoJnh6DziFcRi-uTDS8SrJOar8RJWSID3UikINkBfEw-KLR043AoaJgKG1csGVQJCyCetnn1_tGECwOu-zSob8lhLV6Kre78-rKujdN19CAaZIvwSzrcOVOEeye88Tk5v-oyGbSBTxdw/s640/Mode+density+IE.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Phoenix<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNT7_M3MCTE7NT5GHmU0RZuYIUyi0ZMgzb6Vh6-TunBIJzNnBggMro4K5gsAndBNimbB33_XDOtup28YaYCO3F6g5xfZnvBSVn-el3Hyuw_AQHB6FsdOqyb8l1mG7P264Fe-6A9brVnO0/s1600/Mode+density+Phx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNT7_M3MCTE7NT5GHmU0RZuYIUyi0ZMgzb6Vh6-TunBIJzNnBggMro4K5gsAndBNimbB33_XDOtup28YaYCO3F6g5xfZnvBSVn-el3Hyuw_AQHB6FsdOqyb8l1mG7P264Fe-6A9brVnO0/s640/Mode+density+Phx.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
Tampa Bay<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82ba4ySX7TGIbyte_xL3wwxjVF77R42eB_S6g0_Qi34PhOpJ33gLff51ka8NaRvUvmQoCp0OI-pnyrNSTiR3r_r5U3dFyTem4GUL41tYvRdzeLVRmln3FBGe_Ri0MD4j86SGc2zTCLJo/s1600/Mode+density+Tampa.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82ba4ySX7TGIbyte_xL3wwxjVF77R42eB_S6g0_Qi34PhOpJ33gLff51ka8NaRvUvmQoCp0OI-pnyrNSTiR3r_r5U3dFyTem4GUL41tYvRdzeLVRmln3FBGe_Ri0MD4j86SGc2zTCLJo/s640/Mode+density+Tampa.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Orlando<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7F-596T6HFmHQHQV1qZtlrLY-eV9ORdN284vYL1YrO68l3ZPSkS4th8jd6ckjTZ4HLf5wh7i5cznRbPARkqa5tC4HkQIyhTvvWXpp2FcD9_JLeHNVxsdBKAgpGgvvbWX_aS9sgravep0/s1600/Orlando.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="417" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7F-596T6HFmHQHQV1qZtlrLY-eV9ORdN284vYL1YrO68l3ZPSkS4th8jd6ckjTZ4HLf5wh7i5cznRbPARkqa5tC4HkQIyhTvvWXpp2FcD9_JLeHNVxsdBKAgpGgvvbWX_aS9sgravep0/s640/Orlando.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Charlotte<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUkcGOH85DIcxHBqvDurzJYPu2ieLUX1DevKxz0Oniay52yXgZVKtLDJLwpJPYHuT-yIHe7gq67PvSwPBqxL3cY5YLGlflVW6H3jnzH1fSV9kvpfpPLGZnpW1_jfEjhmjDIy3Z79nXk7s/s1600/Mode+density+Charlotte.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUkcGOH85DIcxHBqvDurzJYPu2ieLUX1DevKxz0Oniay52yXgZVKtLDJLwpJPYHuT-yIHe7gq67PvSwPBqxL3cY5YLGlflVW6H3jnzH1fSV9kvpfpPLGZnpW1_jfEjhmjDIy3Z79nXk7s/s640/Mode+density+Charlotte.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Las Vegas<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVvK3b92nTQ3MSno0gNbz5NsjnXT2cCDM7KvFmHxNI0oGrxtm3d0YVAxc-SimISX-SXVfLPhv8Dt4oLML18OwMf-Jxw8aAHG2SNo6atv8S6JUgpdbmqEnguIlnoylNt1A6YUGD59xeQ6Q/s1600/Mode+density+LV.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVvK3b92nTQ3MSno0gNbz5NsjnXT2cCDM7KvFmHxNI0oGrxtm3d0YVAxc-SimISX-SXVfLPhv8Dt4oLML18OwMf-Jxw8aAHG2SNo6atv8S6JUgpdbmqEnguIlnoylNt1A6YUGD59xeQ6Q/s640/Mode+density+LV.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
More details on the methodology (bold are additions to the methodology from Part 3):<br />
<br />
The primary city's downtown, defined as the business district with the
highest walk score, must always be included in the urban core. The
primary city is the one that's named first in the official metropolitan
area name.<br />
<br />
Any urban census tracts that are contiguous with the primary city's
downtown census tracts also are considered part of the primary core.<br />
<br />
Urban census tracts are defined as tracts that meet one of the following criteria:<br />
<ul>
<li>a population density of at
least 5,000 pop/sq mi in 1960</li>
<li>a population density of at
least 6,000 pop/sq mi in 1970 if 1960 census tract data
does not exist </li>
<li><b>a non-auto commute mode share in 2000 (m0) above that of the MSA's average (m) AND a 2000 density (d0) above that of the MSA's <a href="http://www.austincontrarian.com/austincontrarian/2012/09/the-50-densest-american-metropolitan-areas-by-weighted-density.html">population weighted average density</a></b> <b>(d)</b> </li>
<ul>
<li><b>if there is a secondary urban core (based on 1960 densities > 5000 pop/sq mi ONLY), AND that secondary urban core is in a separate county (or county equivalent) from the primary core AND has a larger population than any part of the primary core extending into the secondary core's county AND the secondary core has an non-auto commute mode share lower than the MSA average, the secondary core county's non-auto commute mode share is used instead of the MSA's for census tracts in that county</b></li>
<li><b>if the primary county has a non-auto commute mode share that is lower than the MSA average, the primary county's non-auto commute mode share is used instead of the MSA's for census tracts in that county</b></li>
</ul>
<li><b>m0 >= 2*m AND m0/m >= d/d0 OR d0 >= 2*d AND d0/d >= m/m0</b></li>
<li><b>a population density of at
least 3,000 pop/sq mi in 1960 if the above criteria do not bring the urban core population to over 20% of the MSA </b></li>
<li>any census tracts
completely surrounded by urban census tracts are also automatically
considered urban. </li>
</ul>
<br />
Secondary urban cores are contiguous urban census tracts with a combined
population of at least 25,000 in 2010. In addition, if the downtown of
one of the MSA's secondary cities, ie a city that is in the MSA's name,
is adjacent to a secondary core, it is also included in the secondary
core.<br />
<br />
Any census tracts with a 2010 density of over 15,000 pop/sq mi
contiguous with primary or secondary urban cores are also included.
</div>
NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-75846301353532774002015-08-24T00:33:00.001-04:002015-08-24T00:45:41.074-04:00Detroit changes in households mapped by decadeIn an <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/mapping-population-change-in-detroit-by.html">earlier post</a>, I posted maps of how Detroit's population changed through the decades, but how much of those changes were the result of changes in household sizes? This post should clear that up, by looking at changes in households (or occupied housing units) by decade at the census tract level. <br />
<br />
1940s. Downtown wasn't really growing - and by most definitions of what downtown includes - was seeing a decline in occupied units. The decline was still pretty moderate though with small pockets of growth mixed in. The older early 20th century neighbourhoods like Poletown, Jefferson-Chalmers, SW Detroit and Dexter-Linwood were still experiencing slow household growth even though the population was declining. This means household sizes were experiencing significant decreases. On the other hand, predominantly black neighbourhoods around Hastings Street didn't experience household growth even though they experienced population growth, pointing to increasing household sizes. Outer Detroit was still growing rapidly.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6rv6pctHne1Gs3yO5KPK69ycesG8NpxDMmDxUXBhfl8et9zAfpWRQ7Ueydx5FBxPf8AeI-VGkfAOPb7pT1Px-qqpaMzPtsit2n7zTAtYAAVfYnoBs6kvo63YaNr0_UKGDzgXhBTZfobU/s1600/Detroit+40s+households.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6rv6pctHne1Gs3yO5KPK69ycesG8NpxDMmDxUXBhfl8et9zAfpWRQ7Ueydx5FBxPf8AeI-VGkfAOPb7pT1Px-qqpaMzPtsit2n7zTAtYAAVfYnoBs6kvo63YaNr0_UKGDzgXhBTZfobU/s640/Detroit+40s+households.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
1950s. Many of the central neighbourhoods begin to experience significant decline. However, the Woodward and Cass corridors of Downtown and Midtown seem to have experienced a significant increase in households despite experiencing a large decrease in population. In 1950, several census tracts there had a ratio of population to housing units well above what would be expected of conventional households. By 1960 the population:housing units ratio was more normal. I'm not sure what the story here is... Perhaps there was a large homeless population that was relocated or rooming houses that were replaced by more conventional units? Although outer Detroit was still growing in households (but not always in population), most of the early 20th century neighbourhoods switched into moderate household decline.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNqNgaaNJFuWJzkXhcwOTxnvjJ2imSavM1L7hOikfnCjiC_BQh5pH7Zf-VviL60t39EzMrT-qal8VC9oMfzHSewKHulQbAhLKl5vt_GcxFVmcESymHbK4gqIwgaEw7U9wqCOKdiBxiZc/s1600/Detroit+50s+households.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNqNgaaNJFuWJzkXhcwOTxnvjJ2imSavM1L7hOikfnCjiC_BQh5pH7Zf-VviL60t39EzMrT-qal8VC9oMfzHSewKHulQbAhLKl5vt_GcxFVmcESymHbK4gqIwgaEw7U9wqCOKdiBxiZc/s640/Detroit+50s+households.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
1960s. Interestingly, many of the early 20th century neighbourhoods seem to have stabilized. Although the 12th street area where much of the rioting of 1967 took place saw a decrease in households, many nearby neighbourhoods like around Dexter Ave saw an increase in households. However, the innermost parts of the city continued to decline, and the 1950s increase in households that occurred around the Woodward/Cass corridor began to reverse. The outer neighbourhoods were still experiencing household growth, but that was slowing down as they were largely built out by this point.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxU6zqlI0Kl0BuXGtjEoJEsq-t4IP-fxiguqNzss-4Yz4jgREIKU7KJnem8BvJ8AxLbtuSbZYMR9nbT3JDGBK8TK7LsfJP5erz2s-SqKusxQ9GOhJV_Ngo7Q7e1LA77SD9Qpi-_CVTVQA/s1600/Detroit+60s+households.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxU6zqlI0Kl0BuXGtjEoJEsq-t4IP-fxiguqNzss-4Yz4jgREIKU7KJnem8BvJ8AxLbtuSbZYMR9nbT3JDGBK8TK7LsfJP5erz2s-SqKusxQ9GOhJV_Ngo7Q7e1LA77SD9Qpi-_CVTVQA/s640/Detroit+60s+households.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
1970s.With a few exceptions, most of the core is experiencing rapid decline in households, as are much of the early 20th century neighbourhoods. Most of the outer neighbourhoods are flat-lining at this point, still relatively stable but not growing much, although there are a few exceptions like Grandale which experienced moderate household decline.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8xNpqi-LXvxYgtyZbj8TZ0AHsJ6nATgjB6KSM7Vt4hoak_peUmTj9cIZfHe6SyqKiRfPvaMio4qYQJbABGkIbFNyQoEXtMtla_isbRdGzV3663ZVe0p4jIRg67AaRhxv3jvQKOVIyqFo/s1600/Detroit+70s+households.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8xNpqi-LXvxYgtyZbj8TZ0AHsJ6nATgjB6KSM7Vt4hoak_peUmTj9cIZfHe6SyqKiRfPvaMio4qYQJbABGkIbFNyQoEXtMtla_isbRdGzV3663ZVe0p4jIRg67AaRhxv3jvQKOVIyqFo/s640/Detroit+70s+households.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
1980s. A few outlying neighbourhoods begin to decline like the Gratiot-6 Mile area and Brightmoor. The downtown starts seeing more areas of growth.<br />
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<br />
<br />
1990s, some of the outer Detroit neighbourhoods that started to decline in the 80s see accelerating decline, notably Brightmoor. However, many outer Detroit neighbourhoods are still pretty stable. Some of the more close in areas actually experience a decrease in the rate of decline.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvwwps2nfVBnbTCUDiZtJDvMPsshQJes823l5tmLpg8e-zJzYIu6CvZZKYDCN8JFLP4YvUVfBO3_mOa-kDyPiJAeCzevSaMPvvB6n4lLBaJWpgBgcgUI7pJdFoIBs38_UtPMQvtzBc1hA/s1600/Detroit+90s+households2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvwwps2nfVBnbTCUDiZtJDvMPsshQJes823l5tmLpg8e-zJzYIu6CvZZKYDCN8JFLP4YvUVfBO3_mOa-kDyPiJAeCzevSaMPvvB6n4lLBaJWpgBgcgUI7pJdFoIBs38_UtPMQvtzBc1hA/s640/Detroit+90s+households2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
2000s. Pretty much everywhere sees the rate of decline increase except for the inner core. The neighbourhoods that were stable in the 90s experience moderate decline, just about everywhere else experiences rapid decline.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggwBG-k_WPvN7ZJ3b5qj89CY6zYEOdYPJq1p0iORsCbEXtPJaq1QGF-YvsUPWP5kbLuf9EdLwl4LuzvwxP6xwnZr1uKIx1K6ZfFXPndg-WGf4lMCagRBSSlPeFMYzc9hBHnFyvM4qLK3s/s1600/Detroit+00s+households2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggwBG-k_WPvN7ZJ3b5qj89CY6zYEOdYPJq1p0iORsCbEXtPJaq1QGF-YvsUPWP5kbLuf9EdLwl4LuzvwxP6xwnZr1uKIx1K6ZfFXPndg-WGf4lMCagRBSSlPeFMYzc9hBHnFyvM4qLK3s/s640/Detroit+00s+households2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-52345412215365988432015-08-10T23:38:00.001-04:002015-08-10T23:43:42.971-04:00Detroit racial demographics changes in the 40s and 50sEarlier this year, I made <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/historic-racial-changes-in-detroit.html">a post</a> showing census tracts in the Detroit area that experienced significant changes in their racial composition for each decade from the 1960s to the 2000s. Lets call this the "transitional zone".<br />
<br />
Getting data for the 40s and 50s was a bit more tedious, but I decided to get around to it since it's somewhat related to yesterday night's <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/mapping-population-change-in-detroit-by.html">post</a> on population change by decade in Detroit. There I mentioned there was a pattern where the total population of census tracts often increased as the share of blacks also increased.<br />
<br />
I defined significant changes in racial composition as a decline of at least 20 percentage points in the white population.<br />
<br />
Here's the 1940s map.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFzc3lZMzvAQcxK7S74735kzNh67a2bgd75Obh25uyiv1UzXkvgNZKQkRuSW1oK3C_G5N5-AgRK6TymabE5x6wAOh7AajIfnyA-fD95gz5k8OqwY3gb6S4FlxKKcL264DuZaiSF99OS0s/s1600/Detroit+40s+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFzc3lZMzvAQcxK7S74735kzNh67a2bgd75Obh25uyiv1UzXkvgNZKQkRuSW1oK3C_G5N5-AgRK6TymabE5x6wAOh7AajIfnyA-fD95gz5k8OqwY3gb6S4FlxKKcL264DuZaiSF99OS0s/s640/Detroit+40s+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The biggest black community in the 1940s was just east of midtown/downtown, around Hastings Street (now mostly demolished for the Chrysler Fwy) in the "Paradise Valley" neighbourhood, and extending into the North End, and in "Black Bottom" (named for its dark soils). Black Bottom was later redeveloped into Lafayette Park and Elmwood Park.<br />
<br />
You also had smaller black communities NW of Downtown around McGraw and W Grand Blvd, Ecorse/River Rouge, 8 Mile-Wyoming/Royal Oak Charter Twp, Inkster and Conant Gardens.<br />
<br />
<br />
The map shows the black community in these neighbourhoods expanding into adjacent areas as the black population of Detroit doubled from about 150,000 to 300,000. If you compare to the maps from <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/08/mapping-population-change-in-detroit-by.html">yesterday's post</a>, the transitional areas generally experienced population growth. That's not that unusual and has happened in many other decades. However, the areas that were already predominantly black at the start of the decade also often grew a little or were at least relatively stable, whereas in every following decade they were losing population.<br />
<br />
Of course the black community wasn't expanding into empty fields but into neighbourhoods that previously had more whites, so here's the demographics of all the census tracts in the transitional areas highlighted in the map above.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHATV9DKfgNXR70r950N_UyTmNg4msfKEOtSpiwNVpYvPcqSvaCb0NIYGTrXMFXgYwvSafR1QCLeckOx3wyJUhvMnyTXu0Ap2toTcKVBf3i8T2Wl5kPJXUytaXemcb7yYmlkpGnliuVJ8/s1600/Detroit+40s+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHATV9DKfgNXR70r950N_UyTmNg4msfKEOtSpiwNVpYvPcqSvaCb0NIYGTrXMFXgYwvSafR1QCLeckOx3wyJUhvMnyTXu0Ap2toTcKVBf3i8T2Wl5kPJXUytaXemcb7yYmlkpGnliuVJ8/s1600/Detroit+40s+table.png" /></a></div>
The changes were pretty fast with the white population dropping by an average of 37.54 percentage points, though not quite as fast as in the 50s, 60s and 70s (drops of 51.40, 46.16 and 45.78 percentage points respectively).<br />
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Here's the map of the transitional zone in the 1950s.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwyJE8upeeB8cBTitxvnzId0XeQEIkwKZaCYwvvMiHSk4xpuFizMGqwmvmRadAUtxskb502NypLo6-7pV2OTWNmfdV_Mnvheun8mPyEeIXMJA1CXeBBlVvqd_KfLrmCKCKUF5o1NyS5fg/s1600/Detroit+50s+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwyJE8upeeB8cBTitxvnzId0XeQEIkwKZaCYwvvMiHSk4xpuFizMGqwmvmRadAUtxskb502NypLo6-7pV2OTWNmfdV_Mnvheun8mPyEeIXMJA1CXeBBlVvqd_KfLrmCKCKUF5o1NyS5fg/s640/Detroit+50s+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
In the 50s, these neighbourhoods typically experienced population loss, though often at a lower rate than adjacent areas (again, probably due to household size increases).<br />
<br />
Here's the demographic stats of the 1950s transitional zone.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8upQem32mKZLAPO8MLJe_NfXasrrwjnuHmMBuCWAAIlVaNg4s_xqRfvsLYsgcld7pXdrLZCTqV5GNTqxHBbRHarvVFL09-E0jcaIp-iN6b8WkCtg1yDgRD1CtYPiUIyy4AcRYoFIZMe8/s1600/Detroit+50s+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8upQem32mKZLAPO8MLJe_NfXasrrwjnuHmMBuCWAAIlVaNg4s_xqRfvsLYsgcld7pXdrLZCTqV5GNTqxHBbRHarvVFL09-E0jcaIp-iN6b8WkCtg1yDgRD1CtYPiUIyy4AcRYoFIZMe8/s1600/Detroit+50s+table.png" /></a></div>
The 1950s transitional zone covered a larger part of the city, and also changed more rapidly. Although the black population of Metro Detroit increased a bit more in the 50s than in the 40s, that's not the main difference. In the 50s, the net increase in the black population living in the transitional zone was actually greater than the net increase in the black population in the city or metro area as a whole. That trend would continue for every following decade, and is probably mostly driven by population loss in neighbourhoods that were already predominantly black at the start of the decade.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-33498104042564516332015-08-10T00:44:00.002-04:002015-08-10T22:48:27.505-04:00Mapping population change in Detroit by decadeWhile I'm working on the next big post on 2000-2010 population change of urban cores, here's a post on population change in Detroit.<br />
<br />
Although Detroit has been experiencing population loss since 1950, it hasn't been occurring at the same rate each decade, and some <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2014/03/post-world-war-ii-rust-belt-trends.html">neighbourhoods have lost more population since 1950 than others.</a> However, it's actually even more complicated than that, so in this post I'm hoping to show some of the more detailed trends by showing maps of census tract level population change by decade, starting with the 1940s:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE4mSs1361OzRge3QYbmluc6UGhkpToWtmlnjQRdpI_g4wIu3tR2gHgVkqPB7eyTrNetvJQwxdTnEbXnaam2F_PPrz71THBkQqLrbeeXucM3nAGXK4nZRUbiZC836-iL_RVSfTRRBAgrs/s1600/Detroit+40s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE4mSs1361OzRge3QYbmluc6UGhkpToWtmlnjQRdpI_g4wIu3tR2gHgVkqPB7eyTrNetvJQwxdTnEbXnaam2F_PPrz71THBkQqLrbeeXucM3nAGXK4nZRUbiZC836-iL_RVSfTRRBAgrs/s640/Detroit+40s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The legend is the same as from the <a href="http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map">New York Times</a> maps. The outlying areas were still experiencing significant population growth in the 40s, while inner neighbourhoods were more mixed. I suspect a lot of the trends in the inner neighbourhoods had to do with changes in household sizes (increasing in some areas, decreasing in others). Mapping changes in occupied households is something I'm hoping to look into with a later post. <br />
<br />
1950s<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxG0zdf4eWbKYZ_Ajn2OBUOgFS6VfH2R9DMaKxkMi6BxgyGOJlBB6DxQF1TGosTX8uVXI8wgfMC68-9UPRsZ2kjUOrndoXV1f_r1TAPI7CrrF0EnC_Of_gTeA1EcebIil0AAtJgP36jk/s1600/Detroit+50s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmxG0zdf4eWbKYZ_Ajn2OBUOgFS6VfH2R9DMaKxkMi6BxgyGOJlBB6DxQF1TGosTX8uVXI8wgfMC68-9UPRsZ2kjUOrndoXV1f_r1TAPI7CrrF0EnC_Of_gTeA1EcebIil0AAtJgP36jk/s640/Detroit+50s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The core was predominantly losing population while outlying neighbourhoods were still growing. Some census tract boundaries changed between certain decades, in which case I combined adjacent census tracts to get a census tract group where the boundaries matched (you see that a bit in the inner core on the 1950s map).<br />
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1960s<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IW5m91lecgForUFO2JVXEBxO_N7bkJym9QBSdxC_rYDn8uupYDrCqPFU8VMRmz91ztqIH6l3fQptluibD_uBvGVxcKFfswHxe7VxMwdDTStIIRtlfF-sqXLkbTOf8ZLg1gEB3_ka5gE/s1600/Detroit+60s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2IW5m91lecgForUFO2JVXEBxO_N7bkJym9QBSdxC_rYDn8uupYDrCqPFU8VMRmz91ztqIH6l3fQptluibD_uBvGVxcKFfswHxe7VxMwdDTStIIRtlfF-sqXLkbTOf8ZLg1gEB3_ka5gE/s640/Detroit+60s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
1960s. Growth at the outskirts continues to slow or even stop, the core continues to lose population at a similar rate, but you also see a few neighbourhoods that go from losing to gaining population, like around Van Dyke and Harper and Livernois and 5/6 Mile. If you look at my earlier maps of <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/historic-racial-changes-in-detroit.html">changes in racial demographics in Detroit</a> you'll see that this population growth was occurring in areas experiencing rapid white flight.<br />
<br />
Wait... what?<br />
<br />
If you think about it, that's not as strange as it initially seems. Black household sizes were probably larger than white household sizes at the time, so as long as the number of occupied housing units stayed more or less stable, population growth could occur. This suggests white flight had a more indirect effect on population decline in neighbourhoods.<br />
<br />
I suspect what happened was that as a result of whites suddenly leaving neighbourhoods, the large supply of housing available caused prices to drop, encouraging blacks to move from older ghettos into these newer homes. Due to the difficulty of getting loans due to problems like redlining, or just because the oversupply of housing meant housing costs were low and it wasn't worthwhile investing in homes in ghettos, homes in the ghettos weren't as well maintained or at least not updated to modern standards. It seems like rather than white flight leading to immediate population loss in the newly forming ghettos, it lead to population loss in the aging ghettos closer to the core as blacks fled the aging ghettos (ie areas with 20%+ losses on the Detroit map) for the homes freed up by white flight.<br />
<br />
Does a similar pattern hold in the 70s? <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMYlLI4AiZlZ9uwvYfMzuEtzBSXam-UTAphjepeqCnUJt5KZf71Kg34tQFHIY1pQeOU5nQYLd3dc2gP6XUz1Z5XreIec-PxNpoolVIGBaYUdRL3SYDWDhvXutR1hzWprdldBdzzB51Lkg/s1600/Detroit+70s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMYlLI4AiZlZ9uwvYfMzuEtzBSXam-UTAphjepeqCnUJt5KZf71Kg34tQFHIY1pQeOU5nQYLd3dc2gP6XUz1Z5XreIec-PxNpoolVIGBaYUdRL3SYDWDhvXutR1hzWprdldBdzzB51Lkg/s640/Detroit+70s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
More or less, if you look back at the <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/historic-racial-changes-in-detroit.html">white flight maps</a>, the neighbourhoods that grew on the west side were pretty much in the middle of the white flight ring and the neighbourhoods that were the most stable on the north and east sides were also experiencing white flight.<br />
<br />
You also see the areas of intense population loss expand significantly from essentially the area inside Grand Boulevard in the 60s to most of the area bounded by Conner/6 Mile/Livernois. <br />
<br />
1980s.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXRpKnqk4UYHQ9qa6N0UQM-SErUoxvGK8wQ_u5CH74HMysJEjXO1yVW25IUrGGgXGegnXnvX7cG94sPNmbVAdDcprc0o9JeMLHLNhjd-gamvkIz8_fHeBC_SYXjKPSKooK9zGO3FkjZkE/s1600/Detroit+80s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXRpKnqk4UYHQ9qa6N0UQM-SErUoxvGK8wQ_u5CH74HMysJEjXO1yVW25IUrGGgXGegnXnvX7cG94sPNmbVAdDcprc0o9JeMLHLNhjd-gamvkIz8_fHeBC_SYXjKPSKooK9zGO3FkjZkE/s640/Detroit+80s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The situation seems to stabilize a bit in a way, and there's more areas of growth in and around downtown. <br />
<br />
1990s.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgsTs22olKqo0Q8HYuM8a0OpvahbInsucnpj1sg3DQCC_vXZaGmKcSBuGMJTP1vmNsDEd1NC0SrWjBISfPbVIhEEVXJAMr_htAeyjrdZ8YL60msHvw4ac6Ruq2HUBHmWW73IDdxIb1M4c/s1600/Detroit+90s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgsTs22olKqo0Q8HYuM8a0OpvahbInsucnpj1sg3DQCC_vXZaGmKcSBuGMJTP1vmNsDEd1NC0SrWjBISfPbVIhEEVXJAMr_htAeyjrdZ8YL60msHvw4ac6Ruq2HUBHmWW73IDdxIb1M4c/s640/Detroit+90s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Downtown is starting to look more stable if not growing, and other inner core neighbourhoods start to experience lower rates of population loss than in the 80s. Outside downtown, the growth in Warrendale and the northeast of the city is again tied to rapid changes from white to black, and in the west side neighbourhoods near Michigan Avenue, it's tied to rapid changes from white to Hispanic.<br />
<br />
However, although Detroit experienced lower overall population loss in the 90s than in the 80s, there are still neighbourhoods that appeared stable in the 80s that began experiencing significant population loss in the 90s, mainly Brightmoor, but also to a lesser extent Gratiot-6 Mile and Grandale.<br />
<br />
Finally there's the 2000s map that many have probably already seen if you've look at the New York Times maps. Rates of population loss increase in most of the outlying neighbourhoods with just a few census tracts, mostly in/near downtown experiencing population growth.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcDkH2wpXpAJBzfQ-s8bUSNzbxDMsGa1MK3QaHitp5hNPcNT6BWAbjo3lpYRRrA9XfI8sPbnA0z4GimADw-JNqodx-wgbqUXJ25gQt3Wg9s2y0tjD5RcsCk47YmsVaa2I13ZWUMFY8wiY/s1600/Detroit+00s+pop+change.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcDkH2wpXpAJBzfQ-s8bUSNzbxDMsGa1MK3QaHitp5hNPcNT6BWAbjo3lpYRRrA9XfI8sPbnA0z4GimADw-JNqodx-wgbqUXJ25gQt3Wg9s2y0tjD5RcsCk47YmsVaa2I13ZWUMFY8wiY/s640/Detroit+00s+pop+change.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-63130235377981385912015-08-02T17:27:00.001-04:002015-08-02T17:41:34.828-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 5Continuing with the idea of defining urban cores based on 1960 densities, here's the next set of maps of what these cores look like, showing the urban cores that lost the most population (not including Chicago that was already shown in part 3).<br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000_25.html">Part 3</a> had maps of the top 10 MSAs by population as well as a table with the stats for all the 1,000,000+ MSAs.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000_27.html">Part 4</a> had maps of other MSAs that experienced urban core growth.<br />
<br />
Again, the format is<br />
<br />
MSA name<br />
Urban core population change (rank)<br />
Urban core % population change (rank)<br />
Urban core population change relative to 2000 population of entire MSA (rank)<br />
<br />
<br />
Detroit lost the most. Its urban core also includes many inner suburbs that did not experience as intense population loss.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1SALY8kzBGkeqrDxL-siWL528zdE4co2JQAl_TFbgWTza07ZcXxg94PU8JitUoibQ1HGneql8ol6ZPOoFGgc6eSZKiFTCyKiK5AFMRqjbpQAkxvc4UY1aeWej5llxVB1ipm2y-KWeLZc/s1600/1960+density+Detroit.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1SALY8kzBGkeqrDxL-siWL528zdE4co2JQAl_TFbgWTza07ZcXxg94PU8JitUoibQ1HGneql8ol6ZPOoFGgc6eSZKiFTCyKiK5AFMRqjbpQAkxvc4UY1aeWej5llxVB1ipm2y-KWeLZc/s640/1960+density+Detroit.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
New Orleans had lower net losses than Detroit (and Chicago), but because it's smaller, it ranked last in terms of the % change, and change relative to the MSA population. It's difficult to tell how much of that can be attributed to Hurricane Katrina. The urban core had a population loss of only about 10,000 in the 90s (compared to a 12,000 loss for city proper) but the city proper was estimated to have lost about 30,000 people between 2000 and 2005. Population loss for the entire city proper was about 140,000 from 2000 to 2010 - the more suburban parts of the city lost population too.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6olI3r-mQTtHh8WGxOX8qyTkmut-IQ4vPghf6hl6ML1xWlZDlRQ_70qFcaxhOKQdwgSW879bshAEAG3qc6xL-tl96xAzXI2MlhJ-dSd8vzjqdErYbt5tdxMOkR7GhQHiqrLjNo2QVHlc/s1600/1960+density+New+Orleans.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6olI3r-mQTtHh8WGxOX8qyTkmut-IQ4vPghf6hl6ML1xWlZDlRQ_70qFcaxhOKQdwgSW879bshAEAG3qc6xL-tl96xAzXI2MlhJ-dSd8vzjqdErYbt5tdxMOkR7GhQHiqrLjNo2QVHlc/s640/1960+density+New+Orleans.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Next is Cleveland<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuY48uDorZle6TGI6_IkMwGJRV2ZQNmn837JHVU8NUKF6P-S40vhSOI_juvGPlpNPNIU2cpIoOYAmQVOf8xMK1nQVGK9rNGXA2yBl3qbXbPoPeizm8jZSNqblcXfno3edJXqkZq_xSv1E/s1600/1960+density+Cleveland.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuY48uDorZle6TGI6_IkMwGJRV2ZQNmn837JHVU8NUKF6P-S40vhSOI_juvGPlpNPNIU2cpIoOYAmQVOf8xMK1nQVGK9rNGXA2yBl3qbXbPoPeizm8jZSNqblcXfno3edJXqkZq_xSv1E/s640/1960+density+Cleveland.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Pittsburgh, in addition to most of the city and some inner suburbs, the core also includes the satellite town of McKeesport.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuq_4iusWH5IlSNmMPZffxFaxNawOTdLmfSmYv2ETWjjUCByTeeE32Zde6CnlFJPm0KVaCYh13JfGyro-hTiNfEuWEo_binW39qeCH8U6i8umsWwwhcWzQrnksz0guxCxh_1a5z1u5pTc/s1600/1960+density+Pittsburgh.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuq_4iusWH5IlSNmMPZffxFaxNawOTdLmfSmYv2ETWjjUCByTeeE32Zde6CnlFJPm0KVaCYh13JfGyro-hTiNfEuWEo_binW39qeCH8U6i8umsWwwhcWzQrnksz0guxCxh_1a5z1u5pTc/s640/1960+density+Pittsburgh.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Buffalo<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil9XjALZQGvkerz4GKqnK-otj1wlWjACcWO3pibZFRk8YHK7aavwC1CpsVpk7g3V6Dq5XJ1E9I8zJtq87g5slXmcIpke-NMI3n095_mUJaFYXy4ecn_xsy6sN8dYEfE0YqQwVkljmFHi0/s1600/1960+density+Buffalo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil9XjALZQGvkerz4GKqnK-otj1wlWjACcWO3pibZFRk8YHK7aavwC1CpsVpk7g3V6Dq5XJ1E9I8zJtq87g5slXmcIpke-NMI3n095_mUJaFYXy4ecn_xsy6sN8dYEfE0YqQwVkljmFHi0/s640/1960+density+Buffalo.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Cincinnati, the secondary core to the north is the town of Hamilton, OH.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSjS9yBUsP6vmWkGQQGqOAzCGygBMYKHGYgYOaAQXFgpWPLkVOmLLhIn1i-8EUWaqAyGE_PQdDkIyUZ3XycXmqwqztv1-pgtVZQSzJ9GcUnrNOiPuSl_TWPewcCd6KIhBXU57FlukT8g/s1600/1960+Cincinnati.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKSjS9yBUsP6vmWkGQQGqOAzCGygBMYKHGYgYOaAQXFgpWPLkVOmLLhIn1i-8EUWaqAyGE_PQdDkIyUZ3XycXmqwqztv1-pgtVZQSzJ9GcUnrNOiPuSl_TWPewcCd6KIhBXU57FlukT8g/s640/1960+Cincinnati.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
St Louis<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghHM9qS6B-5QozY8GPh3rUKzvrjmImJR8Z3Tff3jsowZejdWo_5pPbGqXtzn-_6s0PAE7V2x4DjDBP4PSlDVmEzHqpg66ZUkYa8bRIa4Lvu-_1nYNdNgokLxVFwbONDFQFoszzLi1Z-wY/s1600/1960+density+St+Louis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghHM9qS6B-5QozY8GPh3rUKzvrjmImJR8Z3Tff3jsowZejdWo_5pPbGqXtzn-_6s0PAE7V2x4DjDBP4PSlDVmEzHqpg66ZUkYa8bRIa4Lvu-_1nYNdNgokLxVFwbONDFQFoszzLi1Z-wY/s640/1960+density+St+Louis.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Baltimore<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRuGjrSWQHKVM8tqPRso9kiTblMz5kj74hS_1pkgTayWaWx3ASlEcjd3qAZ4Kfw-a2irBYS-n68U9kFYUwa2W4uPSfYurRmvEY44IOZ0SljLzU-avTHC2yF-V0-6645bbh9kCFtdTQRfw/s1600/1960+density+Baltimore.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRuGjrSWQHKVM8tqPRso9kiTblMz5kj74hS_1pkgTayWaWx3ASlEcjd3qAZ4Kfw-a2irBYS-n68U9kFYUwa2W4uPSfYurRmvEY44IOZ0SljLzU-avTHC2yF-V0-6645bbh9kCFtdTQRfw/s640/1960+density+Baltimore.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Indianapolis<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHj8o6VdzYHyDjb2SI8bQ92xQb9OxWXdDIJCTrdZhW6a-O5HjPBuJq86bDxgqRbeX7YuqOILk0vkZMP3PYs2AynPhBdyF-b2pjaUYsGFeN6NlmVvM3Ls05KQxB8gPmKuKi2En9HDYh0uU/s1600/1960+density+Indianapolis.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHj8o6VdzYHyDjb2SI8bQ92xQb9OxWXdDIJCTrdZhW6a-O5HjPBuJq86bDxgqRbeX7YuqOILk0vkZMP3PYs2AynPhBdyF-b2pjaUYsGFeN6NlmVvM3Ls05KQxB8gPmKuKi2En9HDYh0uU/s640/1960+density+Indianapolis.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Birmingham<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKaUpX8yqR4tWj0EIUr153MvFYpnS5TpOmbH3_e1JZ4vDeeQQiY85YgZXqdLpNrIZ-d70Ub9z66Y3roLJ0YGOgE4uOYUiqzdja27sja6_mRVpCuZjCWO22rEst_0stdBoKgFxWSGKPSUA/s1600/1960+density+Birmingham.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKaUpX8yqR4tWj0EIUr153MvFYpnS5TpOmbH3_e1JZ4vDeeQQiY85YgZXqdLpNrIZ-d70Ub9z66Y3roLJ0YGOgE4uOYUiqzdja27sja6_mRVpCuZjCWO22rEst_0stdBoKgFxWSGKPSUA/s640/1960+density+Birmingham.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
If anyone is interested in seeing maps/stats for other cities, just ask.<br />
<br />
Next I'm hoping to use a modified definition of urban cores to increase the size of the urban cores of newer cities. In many sunbelt cities, only the areas immediately adjacent to downtown met the density threshold, so looking at such a small area is not ideal and doesn't necessarily reflect how desirable it is to live in the central neighbourhoods of such metro areas or how much infill is occuring.<br />
<br />
I'm thinking of also including census tracts that have non-auto commute mode share above the MSA average, and densities above the MSA weighted density. For MSAs where the urban cores is still below 20% of the MSA population, I'll also include census tracts that had densities between 3000-5000 ppsm in 1960. Although this will result in the inclusion of neighbourhoods that aren't very urban by Northeast standards, most should still be semi-urban, more urban than typical sunbelt sprawl.<br />
<br />
From a cursory look, examples of places that could be added to sunbelt cores are Barclay Downs in Charlotte; parts of Alhambra in Phoenix; Northline and Sharpstown in Houston; the White Rock Lake area of Dallas and East Point and Lindbergh in Atlanta.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-33534444825735786632015-07-27T15:54:00.000-04:002015-08-28T17:56:52.344-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 4In <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000_25.html">part 3 of this series</a> I looked at how much the urban cores of the biggest American metro areas grew between 2000 and 2010, with urban cores that were defined primarily by 1960 population densities. Partly to show how well this methodology matches up to what people would subjectively consider the urban cores, I posted images of what the boundaries were for the urban cores of the 10 biggest MSAs.<br />
<br />
Now here are images for 10 more MSAs, this time showing the urban cores that experienced the most growth (and were not already shown in the previous post).<br />
<br />
Again, the labels on the images show:<br />
<br />
Urban core net growth (ranking)<br />
Urban core % growth (ranking)<br />
Urban core growth relative to the MSA's 2000 population (ranking)<br />
<br />
Seattle - it's the MSA where urban core grew the most relative to the size of the MSA.<br />
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San Francisco and San Jose</div>
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Portland</div>
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San Diego </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5su1MZxU0Sj2QabyFaj8t9JEyjjz0-kxo39bwkfxMBwHF4PmvBStX1EnpJEtuLsePnIccMn8HKf3jf1jtm2oo53Qxlum_-LDAwpvyDtvRubSxVPnMXrxLdhdVjk6rnQCmwAvYyCb75ko/s1600/1960+density+San+Diego.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="403" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5su1MZxU0Sj2QabyFaj8t9JEyjjz0-kxo39bwkfxMBwHF4PmvBStX1EnpJEtuLsePnIccMn8HKf3jf1jtm2oo53Qxlum_-LDAwpvyDtvRubSxVPnMXrxLdhdVjk6rnQCmwAvYyCb75ko/s640/1960+density+San+Diego.png" width="640" /></a><br />
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Austin<br />
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Riverside-San Bernardino<br />
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<br />
Charlotte<br />
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Richmond<br />
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Tampa Bay<br />
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<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-2788376373045356722015-07-25T01:02:00.003-04:002015-08-28T17:55:46.953-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 3The first two posts in this series looked at how US MSAs grew relative to distance from city hall. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">Part 1</a><br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000_16.html">Part 2</a><br />
<br />
Finding a single measure that's perfect for showing how cities are growing is difficult if not impossible, but measures like these can still be one piece of the puzzle for showing how cities are growing.<br />
<br />
In this post I'll address the shortcomings of using distance from city hall by using a different definition of urban cores based on census tracts that had 1960 population densities of 5000 people per square mile (pop/sq mi) or more (details are a bit more complicated, see end of post). Ideally, I would've based it on 1950 or even 1940 densities, but there are too many places for which census tract data only exists from 1960 onwards. Besides, census tracts with >5000 pop/sq mi densities are unlikely to have experienced greenfield development between 2000-2010. 5000 pop/sq mi is typical suburban densities, if those tracts weren't already built out by 1960, they probably were soon after. Also, 1950s development, while not quite as urban as pre-WWII development, typically still has some urban elements like locally oriented retail and relatively well connected streets.<br />
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Here's the stats for the urban cores of the 1,000,000+ MSAs ranked by 2000 to 2010 population change. The urban cores include both the primary core (ex New York) and satellite or secondary urban cores (ex White Plains, NY or Plainfield, NJ). I've also included the 2000 and 2010 populations of the urban cores, the urban cores' % population change, and the change relative to the 2000 MSA population. For example, if an MSA of 100,000 people sees a population growth of 1000 in its urban core, the increase is equal to 1% of the MSA population - this is to see how significant the changes in the urban core are relative to the metro area as a whole.<br />
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<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 629px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 6582; mso-width-source: userset; width: 135pt;" width="180"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2596; mso-width-source: userset; width: 53pt;" width="71"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2669; mso-width-source: userset; width: 55pt;" width="73"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2633; mso-width-source: userset; width: 54pt;" width="72"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2450; mso-width-source: userset; width: 50pt;" width="67"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 6070; mso-width-source: userset; width: 125pt;" width="166"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 135pt;" width="180"><br /></td>
<td align="right" style="width: 53pt;" width="71">2000</td>
<td align="right" style="width: 55pt;" width="73">2010</td>
<td style="width: 54pt;" width="72">Change</td>
<td style="width: 50pt;" width="67">% Change</td>
<td style="width: 125pt;" width="166">Change vs 2000 MSA pop</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Total</td>
<td align="right">43337689</td>
<td align="right">42785624</td>
<td align="right">-552065</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.37</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New York</td>
<td align="right">11607361</td>
<td align="right">11790311</td>
<td align="right">182950</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.58</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.00</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Los Angeles</td>
<td align="right">7187835</td>
<td align="right">7262707</td>
<td align="right">74872</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.04</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.61</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Washington</td>
<td align="right">1086955</td>
<td align="right">1152051</td>
<td align="right">65096</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.99</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.36</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Seattle</td>
<td align="right">542777</td>
<td align="right">584840</td>
<td align="right">42063</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.38</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Boston</td>
<td align="right">1497420</td>
<td align="right">1539345</td>
<td align="right">41925</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.80</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.95</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Miami</td>
<td align="right">661556</td>
<td align="right">700203</td>
<td align="right">38647</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.84</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.77</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Francisco-Oakland</td>
<td align="right">2025640</td>
<td align="right">2060259</td>
<td align="right">34619</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.71</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Portland</td>
<td align="right">336083</td>
<td align="right">359027</td>
<td align="right">22944</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Jose</td>
<td align="right">342491</td>
<td align="right">353731</td>
<td align="right">11240</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.28</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Diego</td>
<td align="right">543625</td>
<td align="right">552525</td>
<td align="right">8900</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.64</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.32</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Austin</td>
<td align="right">64414</td>
<td align="right">72066</td>
<td align="right">7652</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.88</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.61</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Riverside-San Bernardino</td>
<td align="right">65630</td>
<td align="right">72286</td>
<td align="right">6656</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Atlanta</td>
<td align="right">146334</td>
<td align="right">152201</td>
<td align="right">5867</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Charlotte</td>
<td align="right">38118</td>
<td align="right">42866</td>
<td align="right">4748</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.46</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.36</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Richmond</td>
<td align="right">94493</td>
<td align="right">97844</td>
<td align="right">3351</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.55</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.31</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Tampa-St Petersburg</td>
<td align="right">143138</td>
<td align="right">146112</td>
<td align="right">2974</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.08</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hartford</td>
<td align="right">218082</td>
<td align="right">220326</td>
<td align="right">2244</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.03</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Orlando</td>
<td align="right">28040</td>
<td align="right">29724</td>
<td align="right">1684</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Providence</td>
<td align="right">300668</td>
<td align="right">301896</td>
<td align="right">1228</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.41</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.08</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Raleigh</td>
<td align="right">25309</td>
<td align="right">26460</td>
<td align="right">1151</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.55</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Virginia Beach-Norfolk</td>
<td align="right">226857</td>
<td align="right">226983</td>
<td align="right">126</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.06</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Oklahoma City</td>
<td align="right">60120</td>
<td align="right">60198</td>
<td align="right">78</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.13</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Salt Lake City</td>
<td align="right">127653</td>
<td align="right">127435</td>
<td align="right">-218</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.17</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Philadelphia</td>
<td align="right">2043620</td>
<td align="right">2042339</td>
<td align="right">-1281</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.06</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nashville</td>
<td align="right">97428</td>
<td align="right">96043</td>
<td align="right">-1385</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.42</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.11</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Las Vegas</td>
<td align="right">53719</td>
<td align="right">50718</td>
<td align="right">-3001</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Jacksonville</td>
<td align="right">50047</td>
<td align="right">46750</td>
<td align="right">-3297</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-6.59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.29</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Minneapolis-St Paul</td>
<td align="right">626360</td>
<td align="right">621951</td>
<td align="right">-4409</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.70</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.15</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Milwaukee</td>
<td align="right">604730</td>
<td align="right">598695</td>
<td align="right">-6035</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.40</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sacramento</td>
<td align="right">174500</td>
<td align="right">168431</td>
<td align="right">-6069</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.48</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Denver</td>
<td align="right">450204</td>
<td align="right">443518</td>
<td align="right">-6686</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.49</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.31</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Louisville</td>
<td align="right">193327</td>
<td align="right">185743</td>
<td align="right">-7584</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Houston</td>
<td align="right">338004</td>
<td align="right">328920</td>
<td align="right">-9084</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.69</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rochester</td>
<td align="right">179318</td>
<td align="right">170138</td>
<td align="right">-9180</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.12</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.88</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Antonio</td>
<td align="right">273879</td>
<td align="right">262368</td>
<td align="right">-11511</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.67</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Dallas-Fort Worth</td>
<td align="right">355621</td>
<td align="right">342399</td>
<td align="right">-13222</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.72</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.26</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Columbus</td>
<td align="right">248529</td>
<td align="right">235251</td>
<td align="right">-13278</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.82</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Memphis</td>
<td align="right">196479</td>
<td align="right">176450</td>
<td align="right">-20029</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-10.19</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.66</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Kansas City</td>
<td align="right">238881</td>
<td align="right">218697</td>
<td align="right">-20184</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.45</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Phoenix</td>
<td align="right">190373</td>
<td align="right">168597</td>
<td align="right">-21776</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-11.44</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.67</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Birmingham</td>
<td align="right">136293</td>
<td align="right">113007</td>
<td align="right">-23286</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-17.09</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Indianapolis</td>
<td align="right">191392</td>
<td align="right">168047</td>
<td align="right">-23345</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-12.20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.45</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Baltimore</td>
<td align="right">742521</td>
<td align="right">711005</td>
<td align="right">-31516</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.23</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">St Louis</td>
<td align="right">528055</td>
<td align="right">490467</td>
<td align="right">-37588</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-7.12</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.39</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cincinnati</td>
<td align="right">367178</td>
<td align="right">327353</td>
<td align="right">-39825</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-10.85</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.98</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Buffalo</td>
<td align="right">462753</td>
<td align="right">422205</td>
<td align="right">-40548</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.76</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.47</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Pittsburgh</td>
<td align="right">560732</td>
<td align="right">511687</td>
<td align="right">-49045</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.02</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cleveland</td>
<td align="right">730106</td>
<td align="right">627166</td>
<td align="right">-102940</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-14.10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.79</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New Orleans</td>
<td align="right">370903</td>
<td align="right">264434</td>
<td align="right">-106469</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-28.71</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.09</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Chicago</td>
<td align="right">3829582</td>
<td align="right">3616729</td>
<td align="right">-212853</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.56</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Detroit</td>
<td align="right">1702822</td>
<td align="right">1417201</td>
<td align="right">-285621</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-16.77</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-6.41</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
By this measure, some MSAs have very big urban cores, like New York, while new metros like Orlando and Las Vegas have very small ones. It might be surprising to see Los Angeles with such a big urban core given its suburban reputation. However, while Los Angeles was a tiny town in the days of urban rowhouse and mid-rise development, development had already spread out across much of the LA Basin and San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys by 1960. This development was largely in the form of semi-urban streetcar suburbs and <a href="http://www.kevinklinkenberg.com/blog/the-4-types-of-sprawl">"pre-interstate suburbia"</a>. The development barriers created by the surrounding mountain ranges caused outwards growth to slow soon after 1960 and the urban area to densify - even if the density took a different shape than in 19th century America. <br />
<br />
There's also a few more cities like Phoenix and Sacramento added to the list of cities that have "hidden" population loss in the urban core by having city limits that include substantial greenfield development. I was a little surprised to see Denver also lose population in its urban core, since it's relatively well known for New Urbanist and infill developments. However, looking more closely, it seems most of the City of Denver's population growth has taken place in suburban style development like Green Valley Ranch, or redevelopment of large non-residential sites like Stapleton Airport or Lowry Airforce Base. The downtown growth, while significant, was not enough to offset population losses elsewhere in the urban core (presumably mostly tied to household size declines).<br />
<br />
These numbers also suggest any attempt to simplify the fate of urban cores as being tied to climate or metro-level growth rates is clearly simplistic since the above table shows the correlation with either of those factors is weak. Many of the sunbelt sprawlers are seeing little to no growth or even population loss in the urban cores. The urban cores that are growing the most are essentially the cities you'd expect and include many slow-growth metro areas in the North-East (though usually with constraints to suburban growth).<br />
<br />
Here are some maps of the top 10 MSAs.<br />
<br />
New York <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5C2mSh8rk7FjqiCAlOQnCk7ByDPmE0khPPFduYVO7R31ddx68ZdDd-Ipr3NFMUZ4apUZjnUGRssQaY7rs7nws0LuwQiYzW5XrtALqGISUYgqW-QGphAux4grD8mWGQ9NxCSW5GcjCUkw/s1600/1960+density+New+York.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5C2mSh8rk7FjqiCAlOQnCk7ByDPmE0khPPFduYVO7R31ddx68ZdDd-Ipr3NFMUZ4apUZjnUGRssQaY7rs7nws0LuwQiYzW5XrtALqGISUYgqW-QGphAux4grD8mWGQ9NxCSW5GcjCUkw/s640/1960+density+New+York.png" width="640" /></a></div>
New York has the largest urban core and the urban core that contains the largest share of the metro area population. As a result, while it saw the biggest net increase (+182,590), it was spread across an area of over 11 million people resulting in a more modest % increase (+1.58%). Still, because it's a 1.58% increase over such a large portion of the metro area, it's still a relatively large increase compared to the size of the metro area (+1.00% ranking 4th).<br />
<br />
The same format will be used for the other top 10 MSAs.<br />
<br />
Los Angeles <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmTECSuHPD0NHZXdHAUnxTc3jnJ2GYBx8ywOAxbUmMstV7X8akIRbwQk_TRcoRFRmhqgnZrQuMolJJ6gZS_6PP_z2iOs_tZeTzxhDWFyJag2grpU6aWFi3aSJQRhrvGmZtYLr1TbDAHn0/s1600/1960+density+Los+Angeles.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmTECSuHPD0NHZXdHAUnxTc3jnJ2GYBx8ywOAxbUmMstV7X8akIRbwQk_TRcoRFRmhqgnZrQuMolJJ6gZS_6PP_z2iOs_tZeTzxhDWFyJag2grpU6aWFi3aSJQRhrvGmZtYLr1TbDAHn0/s640/1960+density+Los+Angeles.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Chicago<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMwt4oUsKhylpJr13_8_rNeOPt940TAlmNKvy88qEcM3hKrqnBWvmjRZHlt8vxLv22v2EeHcb1QTuzXcCIr5NkvexclfHqfmDl7OAX35HRtmkq2ydh6Zdc9anWge7J2gqVrOsEPncMvg/s1600/1960+density+Chicago.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMwt4oUsKhylpJr13_8_rNeOPt940TAlmNKvy88qEcM3hKrqnBWvmjRZHlt8vxLv22v2EeHcb1QTuzXcCIr5NkvexclfHqfmDl7OAX35HRtmkq2ydh6Zdc9anWge7J2gqVrOsEPncMvg/s640/1960+density+Chicago.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b> </b>Dallas-Fort Worth<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCsteEH6YoLRMHE_Hy9mCgu9J19p0FL1UIjKJSNPnqf5N_YCsl0cASbYS4aQAyXvJFMluP9fs1KL93_FZ4lPZnS7-ehEYdUFUUpYiyh-FD-UbKqzVwDUFah5Y56ih4KAqhG894D4QeN7E/s1600/1960+density+DFW.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCsteEH6YoLRMHE_Hy9mCgu9J19p0FL1UIjKJSNPnqf5N_YCsl0cASbYS4aQAyXvJFMluP9fs1KL93_FZ4lPZnS7-ehEYdUFUUpYiyh-FD-UbKqzVwDUFah5Y56ih4KAqhG894D4QeN7E/s640/1960+density+DFW.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
Houston<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdrH5Fkquf40Q-J_BE67hOTB3Sc54N7p0hXRMpDJRU8Y4JO-Lsa1s56rFP2SlHG171PgCBOkg2A4SwMjGhDRBgeDdKpLy1yt89HeTFd2HU28joZ-Z7VXX5z3Qne3AyIPwnQ9Jt6FlH0hU/s1600/1960+density+Houston.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdrH5Fkquf40Q-J_BE67hOTB3Sc54N7p0hXRMpDJRU8Y4JO-Lsa1s56rFP2SlHG171PgCBOkg2A4SwMjGhDRBgeDdKpLy1yt89HeTFd2HU28joZ-Z7VXX5z3Qne3AyIPwnQ9Jt6FlH0hU/s640/1960+density+Houston.png" width="640" /></a></b></div>
<br />
In Houston most of the population loss was actually in Galveston rather than in the primary core, possibly tied to damages from Hurricane Ike.<br />
<br />
<br />
Philadelphia<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWi6p-Vf3QAzEBCEsnvm5ZaPsAVi60wLfS7KaQ1gBwBXCNjBacbK5eTU85VXY-CFPaOo0iKfiqzwakG4ebOGazdCGUAYbSjQxPqOdamHguuQwN0eBHfRa6b_EJ8tt2BBNijlIXeKlAUOs/s1600/1960+density+Philadelphia.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWi6p-Vf3QAzEBCEsnvm5ZaPsAVi60wLfS7KaQ1gBwBXCNjBacbK5eTU85VXY-CFPaOo0iKfiqzwakG4ebOGazdCGUAYbSjQxPqOdamHguuQwN0eBHfRa6b_EJ8tt2BBNijlIXeKlAUOs/s640/1960+density+Philadelphia.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Washington<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb32o3-OmL__iuDyhTtNo7NbBtoR7T-NA6n1vYcoGp7xS59PCFLyDUT0zYtilFGhUpp3gJezG2pRi7wztfoV6-owlMdF5DgO7ZMeqk2PjLTSoEd1tzWwI1WtdFD10eQjiMLS33iL4kkaQ/s1600/1960+density+Washington.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb32o3-OmL__iuDyhTtNo7NbBtoR7T-NA6n1vYcoGp7xS59PCFLyDUT0zYtilFGhUpp3gJezG2pRi7wztfoV6-owlMdF5DgO7ZMeqk2PjLTSoEd1tzWwI1WtdFD10eQjiMLS33iL4kkaQ/s640/1960+density+Washington.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Miami<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTPVn4EFu_8s3mNK12W4ncfyvEnUzGABgJKaPjvAXYjOXk0jN3bJoxwS5LMAAH1zCEX22vIbv0hzsgVgNVMWV43MXieKQTkDTgNf9ABsHeedqoTCVURaEaX6ITii3ixHZI3IQIuOxT0Jg/s1600/1960+density+Miami.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTPVn4EFu_8s3mNK12W4ncfyvEnUzGABgJKaPjvAXYjOXk0jN3bJoxwS5LMAAH1zCEX22vIbv0hzsgVgNVMWV43MXieKQTkDTgNf9ABsHeedqoTCVURaEaX6ITii3ixHZI3IQIuOxT0Jg/s640/1960+density+Miami.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Atlanta<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9qbsvIgBJqMD6OkeOJKtnz4mrbTXrfkvYWYKpTsSTET5DIJErHJSGG2S9K9kqe85lIXlcvwJmE47kwGlg_HZiEKKogMGpCiAQN5QXFD_cwnXE3ohqbatSwVGoy7GEd26I4K0T0ytRQVU/s1600/1960+density+Atlanta.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="399" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9qbsvIgBJqMD6OkeOJKtnz4mrbTXrfkvYWYKpTsSTET5DIJErHJSGG2S9K9kqe85lIXlcvwJmE47kwGlg_HZiEKKogMGpCiAQN5QXFD_cwnXE3ohqbatSwVGoy7GEd26I4K0T0ytRQVU/s640/1960+density+Atlanta.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Boston<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKNb7Kdb9wV1t8xGvtifJwzVK0wjXhlyiGrnTcDklN15eoZD04I3JX3tbYHHb_7DY2Bh29IGTZ0fmP8xyKRYLGEhXNKQjF9hnJCIZZmiyJGGYmVSsWUrr7hO2QoQaQ0CgG6Ai2hisILtM/s1600/1960+density+Boston.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKNb7Kdb9wV1t8xGvtifJwzVK0wjXhlyiGrnTcDklN15eoZD04I3JX3tbYHHb_7DY2Bh29IGTZ0fmP8xyKRYLGEhXNKQjF9hnJCIZZmiyJGGYmVSsWUrr7hO2QoQaQ0CgG6Ai2hisILtM/s640/1960+density+Boston.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Methodology</b><br />
<br />
The primary city's downtown, defined as the business district with the highest walk score, must always be included in the urban core. The primary city is the one that's named first in the official metropolitan area name (so Virginia Beach for the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA).<br />
<br />
Any urban census tracts that are contiguous with the primary city's downtown census tracts also are considered part of the primary core.<br />
<br />
Urban census tracts are defined as having a population density of at least 5,000 pop/sq mi in 1960. In cases where 1960 census tract data does not exist, such as much of New Jersey, census tracts with 1970 densities of at least 6,000 pop/sq mi also qualify. Any census tracts completely surrounded by urban census tracts are also automatically considered urban. <br />
<br />
Secondary urban cores are contiguous urban census tracts with a combined population of at least 25,000 in 2010. In addition, if the downtown of one of the MSA's secondary cities, ie a city that is in the MSA's name, is adjacent to a secondary core, it is also included in the secondary core.<br />
<br />
For example, Tacoma's downtown is largely commercial, and was already that way in 1960, so it did not meet the density requirements. However, adjacent neighbourhoods formed a contiguous area of census tracts with >5000 pop/sq mi 1960 densities with a population of over 25,000 in 2010, and the MSA name is Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, so downtown Tacoma is included. This is not as arbitrary as it sounds, the cities that make it into the MSA name must meet certain criteria of total population and employment.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, there is an area in western Fort Lauderdale that qualifies as a secondary core, but it is not adjacent to downtown Fort Lauderdale so downtown Fort Lauderdale is not included.<br />
<br />
Any census tracts with a 2010 density of over 15,000 pop/sq mi contiguous with primary or secondary urban cores are also included.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-25214400143382563802015-07-16T18:29:00.004-04:002015-07-16T18:47:03.424-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 2The <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/us-msas-urban-vs-suburban-growth-2000.html">first post</a> in this series compared population growth rates of US MSAs in five successive zones or rings from downtown to the exurbs.<br />
<br />
Now I'll look at some key cities in more detail.<br />
<br />
First, the three biggest metropolitan areas, which incidentally have all had relative low growth rates of 3-4% from 2000 to 2010.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnVTJwGPuOEw49tT8O5fy9SqjXRfvKpdEm1Ao7fGAZBQQMTX0v39Bt6NEgxkolSGnXou-427Q5Rtu9RYHQciOHT5jxFL7v7XnmnIftpWwu-mkhWwmZyRljMrxgVF4NhZXtkMnmKOohDyk/s1600/LA+NYC+Chi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnVTJwGPuOEw49tT8O5fy9SqjXRfvKpdEm1Ao7fGAZBQQMTX0v39Bt6NEgxkolSGnXou-427Q5Rtu9RYHQciOHT5jxFL7v7XnmnIftpWwu-mkhWwmZyRljMrxgVF4NhZXtkMnmKOohDyk/s640/LA+NYC+Chi.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The "dispersion scores" (adjusted for population growth) from the previous post were<br />
Chicago: 1.85<br />
Los Angeles: 0.63<br />
New York: 0.28<br />
<br />
That seems to match the graph. While Chicago's downtown experienced the greatest population growth of all American downtowns, the areas beyond experienced population loss. Many of the more desirable neighbourhoods saw declining household sizes and minimal new development, while less desirable areas experienced abandonment. Total population loss between 2 and 23 miles of downtown was 267,665, compared to a gain of 48,288 within 2 miles and a gain of 581,522 beyond 23 miles of downtown.<br />
<br />
New York and LA were more balanced with some population growth throughout most of the metro area. The high growth rates within 4 miles of NYC City Hall correspond to Central Manhattan and areas just across the Hudson and East Rivers. The growth around 7-10 miles corresponds to the outer boroughs and parts of Newark. As for the population loss between 2 and 6 miles from LA City Hall, it was relatively small, declining by about 2%. LA County went from having 4% of housing units vacant in 2000 to 6% vacant in 2010, so that could be part of the cause.<br />
<br />
Next you have three booming sunbelt cities. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXrdX37aX1LQjWHtuPvhnM2uX1iRL0Pzce9ezrOvZyitKeCQGjxw1IWy9ZfCy_OnbT6IT65EzQjrL0BKiZLge5aj68vDjRlFRnWB1527ESzE0nd8w-ZQhNRIM199axiq4rMMgi29rbZxQ/s1600/Cha+Hou+Phx.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXrdX37aX1LQjWHtuPvhnM2uX1iRL0Pzce9ezrOvZyitKeCQGjxw1IWy9ZfCy_OnbT6IT65EzQjrL0BKiZLge5aj68vDjRlFRnWB1527ESzE0nd8w-ZQhNRIM199axiq4rMMgi29rbZxQ/s640/Cha+Hou+Phx.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Houston and Charlotte have had a bit of downtown growth and Phoenix actually lost a bit of population in the core, but all that is insignificant compared to the huge suburban growth these cities have experienced. Charlotte is a smaller city, so it seems like open land existed closer to downtown. In the case of the growth 5-10 miles from downtown Phoenix, looking at the <a href="http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map">NY Times map</a> it seems most of that has been greenfield development south and southwest of downtown on land that was previously overlooked.<br />
<br />
Next, the unofficial capital of the Southeast and one of the oldest cities in America.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKigod7xOYAGNi15pkoE_nkVI-hMEB493aFcKpuRc40Rg3rgxxh2lHOqazvDStQqzKmnzhH0wVtaa7z6PYMtvrbUj8EtWgoQGrSupyZix2UBagdIbg4Pcemo7GD7rn3ZsZeJmsShZKMlU/s1600/Atl+Phi.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKigod7xOYAGNi15pkoE_nkVI-hMEB493aFcKpuRc40Rg3rgxxh2lHOqazvDStQqzKmnzhH0wVtaa7z6PYMtvrbUj8EtWgoQGrSupyZix2UBagdIbg4Pcemo7GD7rn3ZsZeJmsShZKMlU/s640/Atl+Phi.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Despite having much lower overall growth rates, Philadelphia's downtown actually grew faster and the near-downtown neighbourhoods of Philadelphia and Atlanta experienced similar amounts of population loss. Although parts of Atlanta's core grew from 2000-2010, many of the historically black neighbourhoods experienced population loss.<br />
<br />
Boston vs Dallas<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghworo_xiTD0_4IyhSYBbd5i6I-eZsc6DFSam7mZfSNck_zqwn23F9a5uwas9ful2t8vqLq6itgyDUGsDVF88IazDZXRjb0-_aZtjmxi88lReHh_TOaCqyBPPAk9mNcGJukbtejqtbQts/s1600/Dal+Bos.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghworo_xiTD0_4IyhSYBbd5i6I-eZsc6DFSam7mZfSNck_zqwn23F9a5uwas9ful2t8vqLq6itgyDUGsDVF88IazDZXRjb0-_aZtjmxi88lReHh_TOaCqyBPPAk9mNcGJukbtejqtbQts/s640/Dal+Bos.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Dallas has a similar pattern to Atlanta, however, Boston, unlike Philadelphia, did not experience population loss in central neighbourhoods near downtown and saw even less suburban growth.<br />
<br />
Next, three cities well known for smart growth and urban infill, which still have moderately high metropolitan area growth rates.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1u0OlvSc8bl-JsmwCoVET1Ru19J5CPtFoxaCu6gri2V_2s5RZ7PTmfcgAoUI0uUF_UfviXQlcSW7MbPMDS6n0VXCmC-tilIemI_22No4plEHkTS68fTTTA-nkAqZYD8JGsboqrbdgfMk/s1600/Pdx+Sea+DC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1u0OlvSc8bl-JsmwCoVET1Ru19J5CPtFoxaCu6gri2V_2s5RZ7PTmfcgAoUI0uUF_UfviXQlcSW7MbPMDS6n0VXCmC-tilIemI_22No4plEHkTS68fTTTA-nkAqZYD8JGsboqrbdgfMk/s640/Pdx+Sea+DC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Growth rates peak at distances that correspond to the suburban periphery, but are still relatively significant throughout.<br />
<br />
Here are the three biggest rust belt metros.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-PI3HtAWJnWsFVGL4pUZJvVbp3WN0Lh8a3D6QhrSC4x78dwu_I2Sr8FfDmqJ7nQMEihhMmIOGrnaNGEVzgN1dm0UaA9aktmzSUZdpFHlZAlXDXn0NHb49KmBhtW2Kq_yWc9U2-Mhq0Is/s1600/Det+Pbg+Stl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-PI3HtAWJnWsFVGL4pUZJvVbp3WN0Lh8a3D6QhrSC4x78dwu_I2Sr8FfDmqJ7nQMEihhMmIOGrnaNGEVzgN1dm0UaA9aktmzSUZdpFHlZAlXDXn0NHb49KmBhtW2Kq_yWc9U2-Mhq0Is/s640/Det+Pbg+Stl.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Detroit has clearly experienced much more intense population loss in the inner city than St Louis and Pittsburgh. The "ring of decline" from downtown to the distance where population starts to grow again (17 miles) saw a population loss of 302,335. Only Chicago where the ring of decline lost 267,665 people comes close. Despite that, Detroit's suburbs grew almost as fast as St. Louis' and much faster than Pittsburgh's. In fact, while Pittsburgh has a small ring of population growth 12-18 miles from City Hall (+19,805), the growth in this ring was actually negated by population loss further away (-28,255).<br />
<br />
Finally there's 3 cities with "hidden" inner city decline, where the central city grew, but growth near the city limits masks population loss closer to downtown.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj80CXsoLxQh9kX2jQLFupxX2oZjDObxStIKgQFVL3v4gReu_2GRzy9YJJgUBfnVSBjmUQQR1NhZHkCsfQAK4kU_Zh5JEn6OWSXojnfYdd8ZO10FBG5qcUOKZkZrLACh96sConUhwn_JUw/s1600/Ind+Mph+KC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj80CXsoLxQh9kX2jQLFupxX2oZjDObxStIKgQFVL3v4gReu_2GRzy9YJJgUBfnVSBjmUQQR1NhZHkCsfQAK4kU_Zh5JEn6OWSXojnfYdd8ZO10FBG5qcUOKZkZrLACh96sConUhwn_JUw/s640/Ind+Mph+KC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
The population loss was greatest for Memphis, where the "ring of decline" lost 53,572 people, quite a lot for a city its size. Adjusted for metropolitan area population, that's worse than St Louis, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and similar to Buffalo, with Cleveland and Detroit being the only major cities that are worse. It's worth noting that unlike the rust belt cities, Memphis, Indianapolis and Kansas City all experienced relatively significant population growth at the level of the metropolitan area.<br />
<br />
If anyone's interested in seeing comparisons of other cities, just leave a comment. <br />
<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-60902437300278182312015-07-16T14:14:00.000-04:002015-07-16T14:16:44.718-04:00US MSAs urban vs suburban growth (2000-2010) - Part 1Comparing rates of urban and suburban growth in US metropolitan areas can be tricky because it depends a lot on how "suburban" is defined.<br />
<br />
Looking at growth within the limits of the central city is the simplest way to compare, but isn't particularly meaningful. In many cities, including much of the sunbelt cities, city limits expanded significantly in recent decades to include large swaths of land around the periphery with typical suburban characteristics (low density and auto-oriented). On the other hand, a place like Boston has very small city limits and has communities like Cambridge and Somerville that are outside the city limits but which are denser and more pedestrian/transit oriented than the most urban parts of typical sunbelt cities.<br />
<br />
There are several alternative ways of looking at how different parts of metropolitan areas are growing. In this post, I'll divide each 1,000,000+ metropolitan area into a central core and four surrounding rings. The size of these rings has been set so they all contain an equal proportion (20%) of the 2000 metropolitan area population. You can think of these as the center, inner ring suburbs, middle ring suburbs, outer ring suburbs and exurbs. I then look at the growth rate experienced in each ring between 2000 and 2010.<br />
<br />
I've done this using the <a href="http://www.census.gov/population/metro/data/pop_pro.html">population and weighted density by distance from city hall </a>data from the US census bureau (a very good resource by the way if you're interested in population/density/growth patterns of metro areas). It's not a perfect method for separating urban from suburban, but it's still a good way of seeing how much growth is occurring relatively close to downtown compared to areas further away.<br />
<br />
Here are the fifty one 1,000,000+ metro areas ranked by growth rate of the "center". <br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 450px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4022; mso-width-source: userset; width: 83pt;" width="110"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2560; mso-width-source: userset; width: 53pt;" width="70"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2523; mso-width-source: userset; width: 52pt;" width="69"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2377; mso-width-source: userset; width: 49pt;" width="65"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2413; mso-width-source: userset; width: 50pt;" width="66"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="39" style="height: 29.25pt; mso-height-source: userset;">
<td height="39" style="height: 29.25pt; width: 83pt;" width="110"><br /></td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 53pt;" width="70">Center</td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 53pt;" width="70">Inner suburbs</td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 52pt;" width="69">Middle suburbs</td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 49pt;" width="65">Outer suburbs</td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 50pt;" width="66">Exurbs</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Total</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.33</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.22</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.93</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.38</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">22.01</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Inland Empire</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">31.34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">22.52</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">46.41</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">33.47</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Raleigh</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.33</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">31.02</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">41.65</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">91.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">29.30</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sacramento</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.08</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">23.36</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">27.62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">27.22</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Tampa</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.72</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">27.53</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.96</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.52</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">19.08</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Seattle</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.18</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.73</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.51</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.08</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.53</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Portland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.22</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.73</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">16.05</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">25.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.18</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Richmond</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.42</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">13.49</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">27.69</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.63</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Washington</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.65</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.15</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">18.04</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">41.32</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Charlotte</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.56</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">31.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">71.89</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">36.76</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">14.75</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Austin</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.09</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">42.09</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">90.78</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">38.65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Miami</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.82</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.77</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.09</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">18.56</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Jose</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.73</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.02</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.90</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Virginia Beach</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.41</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.38</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Boston</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.30</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.74</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.61</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.92</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Orlando</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.48</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">22.03</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">58.98</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">52.23</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Francisco</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.63</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.47</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.97</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.22</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.38</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Diego</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.33</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">19.79</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">16.97</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Salt Lake City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.05</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.91</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.35</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">16.18</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">50.65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New York City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.23</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.75</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.76</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.97</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Oklahoma City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.35</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.58</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">25.10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">28.72</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.09</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Phoenix</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.60</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.58</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">20.02</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">109.29</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Houston</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.15</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.71</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">35.29</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">53.04</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">33.34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hartford</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.91</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.89</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.60</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Providence</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.40</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.32</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.44</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.92</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Minneapolis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.34</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.89</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">29.81</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Atlanta</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.51</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">19.08</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">41.56</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">48.92</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Philadelphia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.02</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.29</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.53</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.86</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Los Angeles</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.17</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.84</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2.68</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.57</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.81</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Denver</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.17</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.77</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">5.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">13.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">60.64</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nashville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.85</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">13.53</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">36.70</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">31.96</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">24.65</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Dallas</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.56</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">22.92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">51.20</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">32.71</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Milwaukee</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.39</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.78</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Las Vegas</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.74</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.68</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">24.92</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">38.04</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">138.26</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Columbus</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.99</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">19.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">36.93</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.28</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Antonio</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.96</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">22.24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">59.71</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">43.12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rochester</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.78</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.09</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.40</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.98</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Louisville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.11</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">29.22</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.83</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Baltimore</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.16</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.47</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.60</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">11.91</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Jacksonville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-6.37</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.96</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">24.46</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">32.50</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">39.64</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Chicago</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-6.46</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.04</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.51</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.01</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">24.90</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Kansas City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-6.69</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.29</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">32.47</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">15.42</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Pittsburgh</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-7.41</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-5.24</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.05</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.88</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-3.93</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">St Louis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.12</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">3.73</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.63</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">21.55</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cincinnati</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.98</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.59</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">17.36</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">12.57</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Indianapolis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-9.22</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">9.14</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">20.66</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">41.62</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">13.57</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Birmingham</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-12.23</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.89</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">10.93</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">27.27</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.62</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Buffalo</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-12.28</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-4.70</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">6.64</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.73</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Memphis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-12.83</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-7.17</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.99</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">25.97</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">35.02</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cleveland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-16.23</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-9.81</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.81</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.43</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">4.95</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Detroit</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-22.64</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-8.28</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.76</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">7.98</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">8.12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New Orleans</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-26.51</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-21.67</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-13.61</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-9.69</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">14.97</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Obviously you have to be careful with how you analyze this. In the case of the Inland Empire for example, the "center" of the metropolitan area is essentially the area within 9 miles of downtown Riverside. However, the Inland Empire consists of about a dozen population centers, neither of which are particularly dominant. The area within 9 miles of Riverside's downtown includes a range of urban (by Riverside standards), suburban and exurban style neighbourhoods, as well as undeveloped land. The data for the Inland Empire doesn't show much aside from how polycentric that region is.<br />
<br />
Raleigh is not really polycentric (though relatively decentralized). However, it is a very low density region. Among these 51 metropolitan areas, only Birmingham and Nashville have lower weighted densities. A significant portion of the metropolitan area seems to consist of large lot housing or isolated subdivisions in relatively rural settings:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4OKxECdSV3gVqnvubJZEgJaaQIQyR6403OQisveADzUkWgDdWvjNkcx7gK4iqBeV7Xel1L8XlPkGnuSvcpm2AhhQMWaH3Nutj3tHkLGyi32YMP729j119R_pYyvZuAMHV7yTC3GsS1g/s1600/Raleigh+Exurbs.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4OKxECdSV3gVqnvubJZEgJaaQIQyR6403OQisveADzUkWgDdWvjNkcx7gK4iqBeV7Xel1L8XlPkGnuSvcpm2AhhQMWaH3Nutj3tHkLGyi32YMP729j119R_pYyvZuAMHV7yTC3GsS1g/s640/Raleigh+Exurbs.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Raleigh's growth has also been relatively lopsided, so the "center" actually includes significant amounts of greenfield development, especially east and south of downtown, despite the "center" only including the census tracts within 5 miles of downtown. In addition, even the development that is infill within the "center" of the metropolitan area is often in a suburban setting, because Raleigh's truly urban core is so small. Nonetheless, having a decent amount of growth within a few miles of downtown, even if it's in a suburban setting, can be seen as positive over having all growth 10+ miles away.<br />
<br />
Sacramento, Tampa and others are similar to Raleigh, in that they have had greenfield development in the "center" of the metro area due to polycentric or "lopsided" development patterns. For Portland, Seattle and Washington though, the growth at the centre of the metropolitan area is predominantly urban infill.<br />
<br />
Aside from looking at which metropolitan area centers did grow, it's also interesting to see which ones did not. Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Nashville and Las Vegas saw no significant net increase in population in their centers, or even a small decrease, despite having very rapidly growing suburbs. There are also metropolitan areas where the centers of the metropolitan areas actually experienced significant population loss - Kansas City, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Memphis - but you would not have known by looking at the population of the core cities, which are expansive and include areas of greenfield development far from the center.<br />
<br />
You can also use this data to measure the rate of dispersion of these cities - how much of the growth is occurring near the primary city's downtown, compared to how much is occurring far from it. I've measured this by taking the value of the slope through a graph of growth rate vs development ring. For example, if a city had the following growth rates:<br />
<br />
Center: 0%<br />
Inner Ring: 5%<br />
Middle Ring: 10%<br />
Outer Ring: 15%<br />
Exurban Ring: 20%<br />
<br />
... the slope would be 5.<br />
<br />
This is how the 51 metropolitan areas would rank in terms of dispersion.<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 163px;"><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 74pt;" width="99">Las Vegas</td><td align="right" class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">30.84</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Phoenix</td><td align="right" class="xl66">22.56</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Antonio</td><td align="right" class="xl66">14.83</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Austin</td><td align="right" class="xl66">14.80</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Orlando</td><td align="right" class="xl66">14.35</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Denver</td><td align="right" class="xl66">13.01</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Memphis</td><td align="right" class="xl66">12.88</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Atlanta</td><td align="right" class="xl66">12.86</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Jacksonville</td><td align="right" class="xl66">11.56</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Houston</td><td align="right" class="xl66">10.87</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Dallas</td><td align="right" class="xl66">10.75</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Salt Lake City</td><td align="right" class="xl66">10.65</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New Orleans</td><td align="right" class="xl66">9.49</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Raleigh</td><td align="right" class="xl66">8.87</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Washington</td><td align="right" class="xl66">8.36</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Indianapolis</td><td align="right" class="xl66">7.81</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Detroit</td><td align="right" class="xl66">7.78</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Minneapolis</td><td align="right" class="xl66">7.71</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Kansas City</td><td align="right" class="xl66">7.64</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Chicago</td><td align="right" class="xl66">7.38</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nashville</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.94</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">St Louis</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.92</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Louisville</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.80</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Birmingham</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.71</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cincinnati</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.21</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Columbus</td><td align="right" class="xl66">6.06</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cleveland</td><td align="right" class="xl66">5.96</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Oklahoma City</td><td align="right" class="xl66">5.36</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sacramento</td><td align="right" class="xl66">5.25</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Inland Empire</td><td align="right" class="xl66">4.80</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Baltimore</td><td align="right" class="xl66">4.53</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Richmond</td><td align="right" class="xl66">3.60</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Milwaukee</td><td align="right" class="xl66">3.42</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Philadelphia</td><td align="right" class="xl66">3.34</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Portland</td><td align="right" class="xl66">3.33</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Buffalo</td><td align="right" class="xl66">3.05</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Diego</td><td align="right" class="xl66">2.54</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Francisco</td><td align="right" class="xl66">2.42</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Los Angeles</td><td align="right" class="xl66">2.37</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Charlotte</td><td align="right" class="xl66">2.35</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Seattle</td><td align="right" class="xl66">2.10</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Miami</td><td align="right" class="xl66">1.91</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hartford</td><td align="right" class="xl66">1.46</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rochester</td><td align="right" class="xl66">1.38</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Virginia Beach</td><td align="right" class="xl66">1.18</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Pittsburgh</td><td align="right" class="xl66">1.03</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New York City</td><td align="right" class="xl66">0.86</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Jose</td><td align="right" class="xl66">0.67</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Boston</td><td align="right" class="xl66">0.51</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Providence</td><td align="right" class="xl66">0.37</td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Tampa</td><td align="right" class="xl66">0.07</td><td align="right" class="xl66"></td><td align="right" class="xl66"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
It seems faster growing metropolitan areas are spreading out more than slower growing ones, though not always, Memphis is not especially fast growing. You could try to adjust for population growth rate of the metropolitan area. That way, if you have two metropolitan areas where all the grow occurred in the exurban ring, but one is fast growing with a 100% growth rate in the exurban ring and the other is slow growing with a 10% growth rate in the exurban ring, they'll both have the same "score".<br />
<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 166px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3730; mso-width-source: userset; width: 77pt;" width="102"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 77pt;" width="102">Chicago</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">1.85</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">St Louis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.64</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Memphis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.40</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cincinnati</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">1.04</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Milwaukee</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.94</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Birmingham</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.92</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rochester</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.88</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Phoenix</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.78</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Denver</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.78</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Minneapolis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.74</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Las Vegas</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.74</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Baltimore</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.73</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Kansas City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.71</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Philadelphia</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.68</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Salt Lake City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.66</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Louisville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.66</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Los Angeles</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.63</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Antonio</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.59</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Jacksonville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.58</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Atlanta</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.53</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Indianapolis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.52</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Washington</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.51</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Orlando</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.48</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Francisco</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.47</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Dallas</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.46</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Columbus</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.44</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Houston</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Austin</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.40</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Oklahoma City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.37</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Nashville</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Providence</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.33</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New York City</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.28</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Sacramento</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Hartford</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.26</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Diego</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.25</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Richmond</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.25</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Portland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Raleigh</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.21</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Virginia Beach</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Miami</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.17</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Seattle</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Inland Empire</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.16</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Boston</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">San Jose</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.12</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Charlotte</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.07</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Tampa</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Pittsburgh</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.34</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">New Orleans</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-0.84</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Buffalo</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.03</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Cleveland</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-1.81</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Detroit</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">-2.21</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
You now have slower growth cities like Chicago and St Louis that have experienced population decline in their urban cores but growth in the suburbs moving to the top of the list. The numbers for the five metropolitan areas that lost population are negative, and so they're measuring something different - essentially how much faster is the center losing population relative to the rate of population loss in the metropolitan area as a whole.<br />
<br />
Next, I'll show some graphs comparing the patterns of growth by distance from city hall in more detail.<br />
<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-48449716103148376622015-07-12T15:42:00.002-04:002015-07-14T17:09:57.938-04:00Where do the cars in Toronto come from? Part 4<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part.html">Part 1</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part_29.html">Part 2</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/07/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part.html">Part 3</a><br />
<br />
The fourth post of this series will have a few more assorted maps.<br />
<br />
First, car ownership, in terms of cars per adult (aged 16+). <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGHIEo5BQuzPmJWqSbyjEq72uXQjpDlHkxH50AHzX1n7_3fiMJwjHc6IkxntV3m2X3WGzAJeipCr6D3LVPzdFRbmS6AJJmnZO02OO06ECszneMiC15skJeqYGzHqqy1f5mCCqJhjQ1KG0/s1600/car+ownership2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGHIEo5BQuzPmJWqSbyjEq72uXQjpDlHkxH50AHzX1n7_3fiMJwjHc6IkxntV3m2X3WGzAJeipCr6D3LVPzdFRbmS6AJJmnZO02OO06ECszneMiC15skJeqYGzHqqy1f5mCCqJhjQ1KG0/s1600/car+ownership2.png" /></a></div>
<br />
It seems like much of Toronto's inner suburbs have car ownership rates closer to those of the more close-in neighbourhoods than those of the outer suburbs. SE Scarborough is one exception, but that shouldn't be too surprising since it is far flung with mediocre transit and a relatively middle class population. The Bedford Park and York Mills areas, and Central and Southern Etobicoke also have higher car ownership, despite being better located, and in some parts, having subway access, so wealth probably a major factor there.<br />
<br />
In fact, car ownership patterns follow <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/rexdale-bastion-of-torontos-middle-class.html">income patterns</a> quite closely outside of the urban core (Old Toronto).<br />
<br />
The rate of car-free households follows a slightly different pattern:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_QU3XKCozA881o8fMqD2borFPkx8tXOqJfEdNrZOjWcsX-nWvXOVVXNgVxczjttbebnkEDGkgFfHvUJu0mnn6Zr5lnkE4MyrQi1lXSEgmvMBcKses74-H2bl3jg7XFosvhY1GoJHKb6o/s1600/car+free+households.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_QU3XKCozA881o8fMqD2borFPkx8tXOqJfEdNrZOjWcsX-nWvXOVVXNgVxczjttbebnkEDGkgFfHvUJu0mnn6Zr5lnkE4MyrQi1lXSEgmvMBcKses74-H2bl3jg7XFosvhY1GoJHKb6o/s1600/car+free+households.png" /> </a></div>
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Many outer suburban wards have large household sizes, often with more than 2 adults per household, up to an average of 3 adults (aged 16+) per household in Markham's wards 7 & 8 on the Scarborough border. Car free households are rare but most households have just 1 or 2 cars. Older suburban wards might have a bit fewer cars per household and more car-free households but also have fewer adults per household.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Next, a map showing the ratio of trips to individual wards to trips taken by ward residents.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjql_Iq4hcCB6nyVBcRvoLbjQ0Xq-SRfWilxUOxK5M6ZG7d3H2lnjD5bmeC8F8lAitrhY-gDtKJPsULzionToDPoElFhhUx0WDHwnn3bUk6vRJ5XSoUSfb3tYLToARF-RnlBAHFVhJZzik/s1600/trips+in+vs+out.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjql_Iq4hcCB6nyVBcRvoLbjQ0Xq-SRfWilxUOxK5M6ZG7d3H2lnjD5bmeC8F8lAitrhY-gDtKJPsULzionToDPoElFhhUx0WDHwnn3bUk6vRJ5XSoUSfb3tYLToARF-RnlBAHFVhJZzik/s1600/trips+in+vs+out.png" /></a></div>
This shows that Downtown has a lot more destinations like workplaces, shopping, entertainment and education than you would expect based on the number of local residents. On the other hand, wards east and west of downtown have relatively few destinations, so residents of these neighbourhoods probably go to downtown quite frequently.<br />
<br />
That's not too surprising, more interesting is that there's quite a lot of destinations in the working class areas in the NW of Toronto. This supports my suspicion that part of the problem in these communities is not necessarily a lack of jobs, shopping, etc compared to other suburban communities, but that there are more low-income residents that have less access to cars. Since these communities have mediocre transit, that means residents that have to rely on transit are at a disadvantage compared to suburban residents that have good access to cars.<br />
<br />
Next is a dot map to show the combination of trips made to and from each ward by car (drivers only).<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAnwATb9-ycLmXlpLQl4Ui7_My22_R9Qptg0_HaYqBJVVkr_wGhogRdpY99fVn_pyde3RdzGgbI4o6di0isc40Jy9sINXcCepTRlpIlS980unWNSqtoIM_p9vYl8wWQcKBJfO-qrPlkig/s1600/Car+trip+dot+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAnwATb9-ycLmXlpLQl4Ui7_My22_R9Qptg0_HaYqBJVVkr_wGhogRdpY99fVn_pyde3RdzGgbI4o6di0isc40Jy9sINXcCepTRlpIlS980unWNSqtoIM_p9vYl8wWQcKBJfO-qrPlkig/s1600/Car+trip+dot+map.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Although there seems to be a greater density of auto trips in more central neighbourhoods (note that this doesn't take into account trips that pass through a ward), the difference is much smaller than the difference between the density of transit trips in downtown vs the more suburban wards.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMBg4sYzik48fK6W1hYWi0w3wr9LV5akh_PJ-bY2uv7Q3iH0z5uxbxqCPc4OVdJYJJsI_3VOpUTpKhz91eNPUo1AbmjYkg_3oqGJj7-NS1mHRBNdKYt6mFKwAdhB4SsZGkq8VDY_5hSIo/s1600/Transit+trip+dot+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMBg4sYzik48fK6W1hYWi0w3wr9LV5akh_PJ-bY2uv7Q3iH0z5uxbxqCPc4OVdJYJJsI_3VOpUTpKhz91eNPUo1AbmjYkg_3oqGJj7-NS1mHRBNdKYt6mFKwAdhB4SsZGkq8VDY_5hSIo/s1600/Transit+trip+dot+map.png" /></a></div>
With roadways in central Toronto and even many suburban areas at capacity, at least during peak periods, this shows just how much more development can be allowed to occur thanks to transit.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-32943423426185844282015-07-11T23:02:00.001-04:002015-07-12T18:04:19.178-04:00Where do the cars in Toronto come from? Part 3<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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</div>
The third post of this series will have maps showing mode share at the level of the ward. Toronto has 44 wards, meaning a population of about 60,000 each.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part.html">Part 1</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part_29.html">Part 2</a><br />
<br />
First, this is the driver mode share for all trips (not just commutes) by location of residence. This is based off the 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey data, which sorts trip in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Toronto_and_Hamilton_Area">GTHA</a> into the transportation modes of driver, passenger, walk/bike, GO transit and local transit (as in provided by a local agency, it includes subways).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo41n_9TzVaDNFQpzI7S6OIXBXWdD0dZgKwQUPfTOq1BJZwwL0ROmO9lj0AQuZBEBi2TlltICuBWWFDrF3_ewDfXdeLWAQIPZqk7jpunZ6R_EWMTb7KF_bVJlHzNBP_ew40CwzbpOAqNY/s1600/resident+driver+mode+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo41n_9TzVaDNFQpzI7S6OIXBXWdD0dZgKwQUPfTOq1BJZwwL0ROmO9lj0AQuZBEBi2TlltICuBWWFDrF3_ewDfXdeLWAQIPZqk7jpunZ6R_EWMTb7KF_bVJlHzNBP_ew40CwzbpOAqNY/s640/resident+driver+mode+share.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
No huge surprises, the downtown wards (20, 27, 28) have the lowest drive
mode shares, and driver mode share generally increases further from
downtown. However, you do see that the west end has lower driver mode
share than the east end. You also see that there's little correlation
between proximity to subways and driver mode share in more suburban
areas - income seems to be more of a factor with the more working class
suburban wards NW of downtown and in central Scarborough having lower
driver mode shares than the wealthier suburban wards like 4 or 25. Ward 8
stands out somewhat - it contains York University and much of the
Jane-Finch neighbourhood.<br />
<br />
Next, a similar map, but this time showing driver mode share by destination for the whole GTA.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">side note:</span> <span style="font-size: x-small;">some of the suburban communities had very small wards, in which case they were combined with adjacent wards. I've been aiming for a population of 30,000-60,000 per ward. Oshawa does not have any wards, so I just gave the data for the whole municipality. If there's interest, I might update the post so that all maps are GTA wide, but for now I'll mostly focus on Toronto proper.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjynEMjSklXTmYqSlUX74ky6KMe1XxQf-Oh1Mnshv3h-Vd7hbL6-RPVQYnX1UauZ4oW0swAWkQSnkXd3DkowPh5RvtwRnnRIOnL60pF6pBVdnPAVu-268-46CMd3Ez4KaikXsyL-ZNxMQ/s1600/driver+mode+destination.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjynEMjSklXTmYqSlUX74ky6KMe1XxQf-Oh1Mnshv3h-Vd7hbL6-RPVQYnX1UauZ4oW0swAWkQSnkXd3DkowPh5RvtwRnnRIOnL60pF6pBVdnPAVu-268-46CMd3Ez4KaikXsyL-ZNxMQ/s640/driver+mode+destination.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Income should have less of an effect here, since we're
looking at mode share by destination. Again, driver mode share is lowest
for downtown, followed by the west end. There are wards in more
suburban areas with relatively low driver mode shares, many of these
have important post-secondary education campuses. School trips are 7% of
the total in the GTA, here's how the wards with important campuses
compare<br />
<br />
Toronto Ward 1 (Humber College North Campus)<br />
Driver mode: 54%<br />
Percent of trips that are to school: 20%<br />
<br />
Toronto Ward 8 (York University)<br />
Driver mode: 47%<br />
Percent of trips that are to school: 31%<br />
<br />
<br />
As for why Scarborough has lower driver mode share than North York
and especially Scarborough, I'm not sure, but there is one possible
reasons I can think of. First, although they all have similar
development patterns, Scarborough is a bit more isolated from wealthy
outer suburban areas so these make up a smaller part of the local labour
market while a lot of the commuters come from within Scarborough, compared to North York and especially compared to Etobicoke.<br />
<br />
Using 2006 TTS data (905 is the area code of the outer suburbs)<br />
<br />
Location of residence of employees in Scarborough<br />
Scarborough: 44%<br />
Other Toronto: 22%<br />
905: 34%<br />
<br />
Location of residence of employees in Etobicoke<br />
Etobicoke: 25%<br />
Other Toronto: 28%<br />
905: 47%<br />
<br />
Location of residence of employees in North York<br />
North York: 28%<br />
Other Toronto: 36%<br />
905: 36%<br />
<br />
Perhaps the pattern is also similar for non-work trips.<br />
<br />
Next is a little map where the value mapped = [driver mode share for trips made by ward residents] - [driver mode share for trips made to the ward]<br />
<br />
A negative value suggests it would be somewhat hypocritical for ward residents to complain about outsiders creating traffic in their ward whereas they would be more justified to complain when the value is positive.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgflEqSRExKuAV7gJRMEDWTrCTqnM5OVpB1BsfzmmSWKtAGUZt8Vr7jCv7LH8Ca_kvDnNRzsk3qSwrNiRZmuuq5mg5M8UmJf6v6h-QENZMWaRum05kyptKg-90VgiLuVNa5cYwlIp77CSw/s1600/resident+vs+destination+mode+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgflEqSRExKuAV7gJRMEDWTrCTqnM5OVpB1BsfzmmSWKtAGUZt8Vr7jCv7LH8Ca_kvDnNRzsk3qSwrNiRZmuuq5mg5M8UmJf6v6h-QENZMWaRum05kyptKg-90VgiLuVNa5cYwlIp77CSw/s640/resident+vs+destination+mode+share.png" width="640" /></a></div>
It seems that in the northern and western part of downtown, values are
highly negative, possibly because downtown is a major centre of
employment and trips to the ward are more likely to be during congested
peak hours while residents of downtown would make a higher proportion of
trips during off-peak periods.<br />
<br />
Many of the most positive values are in wards with a lot of employment that's accessible to outer suburbanites by highway, but where local residents are more working class and more likely to take transit. So outside downtown, residents would have some justification for complaining about traffic caused by 905ers.<br />
<br />
Here is a map of transit mode share of trips by location of residence.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoZ_BtNlswiyK8v_0iA6GxuHywhugoWLdYEPJzkJCi66IQljAJDgWvoYrqc9WpQU44nXLGGw4AQInwYLkLPSMmtZ9MpFWW2ZknCAsDEeznDo9KCloOnIkHbQfDomwGAZwTAXMqZZARDoc/s1600/Transit+mode+by+location+of+residence+all+trips.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoZ_BtNlswiyK8v_0iA6GxuHywhugoWLdYEPJzkJCi66IQljAJDgWvoYrqc9WpQU44nXLGGw4AQInwYLkLPSMmtZ9MpFWW2ZknCAsDEeznDo9KCloOnIkHbQfDomwGAZwTAXMqZZARDoc/s640/Transit+mode+by+location+of+residence+all+trips.png" width="640" /></a> Transit mode is not quite the inverse of driver mode - downtown has a high
walk/bike mode share, which not only cuts into driving but also cuts
into transit use a little. As a result, the west end has a bit higher
transit mode share. This is why a significant benefit of having a
growing downtown and downtown adjacent population is that not only do
residents drive less and require less auto-infrastructure per capita,
but they don't even require that much transit infrastructure per capita,
especially since not only is transit mode similar to the rest of Old
Toronto, but transit trips are shorter. Meanwhile the cost of pedestrian and bike infrastructure is very small, and doesn't even increase much with use - the suburbs often have sidewalks too, despite having much fewer pedestrians.<br />
<br />
Transit mode by location of trip destination. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7eT0VOQ0V63a2tEmBHRDdkXGQ4zfQXASXhVjDSqnwROtDIXmwZoCoBKrc7lrcbNAh0WU39TT59CSWzCorTspXV1KffTz-GycZMHFENhQqHzaIFriGlfN6Q2aLzzwZQUMj2HXgKxD57lU/s1600/Transit+mode+by+destination.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7eT0VOQ0V63a2tEmBHRDdkXGQ4zfQXASXhVjDSqnwROtDIXmwZoCoBKrc7lrcbNAh0WU39TT59CSWzCorTspXV1KffTz-GycZMHFENhQqHzaIFriGlfN6Q2aLzzwZQUMj2HXgKxD57lU/s640/Transit+mode+by+destination.png" width="640" /></a></div>
In this case, there's a stronger pattern of high transit use for downtown destinations and
lower transit use going further out. Ward 8 (Jane-Finch - York
University) and Ward 23 (Willowdale) are the exceptions with moderate
transit use despite being relatively far from downtown.<br />
<br />
<br />
Finally I've combined transit mode share for trips made by residents of each ward and trips made to the wards.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdwzSn-PL4QuxamNQw4WOCGWcBljysoCvRgwVan2-VXSDqrKJ6nceLggDd8oiEhK7MkGF3_6iRNWiGHqXAR9Yfw1Yj7OwmEWwmosz9jthlIy8tsjAuBrOLtQ6bEFXA-LKeEuJiuwco6Go/s1600/Transit+mode+all+in%252Boutbound+trips.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdwzSn-PL4QuxamNQw4WOCGWcBljysoCvRgwVan2-VXSDqrKJ6nceLggDd8oiEhK7MkGF3_6iRNWiGHqXAR9Yfw1Yj7OwmEWwmosz9jthlIy8tsjAuBrOLtQ6bEFXA-LKeEuJiuwco6Go/s640/Transit+mode+all+in%252Boutbound+trips.png" width="640" /></a></div>
NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-56349454206294206642015-06-29T15:55:00.001-04:002015-07-12T18:04:07.883-04:00Where do the cars in Toronto come from? Part 2In the <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/06/where-do-cars-in-toronto-come-from-part.html">previous blog post</a> we looked at how much of the commuters driving from downtown are not from the 905, and in fact, residents from the 905 take transit at a comparable rate to Toronto commuters to get to downtown jobs.<br />
<br />
However, there's more to the story than just who drives to downtown for work. This blog post will look at the design and location of suburban job centres, how it encourages driving, including from downtown reverse commuters, and non-work auto trips to and from downtown.<br />
<br />
Although the auto-mode share for downtown to downtown commutes is only 7%, based off the <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E">2011 National Household Survey census tract profiles</a>, and data presented in the <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/transportation/2015/01/16/road-to-transit-heaven-will-be-paved-with-facts-james.html">Toronto Star article</a> used in the previous blog post, auto mode share for downtown residents commuting to jobs outside downtown is about 46%. This makes for over 28,000 downtown residents driving to work, more than the number of people driving to downtown jobs from the entirety of the 905, and the vast majority of that is from reverse commuting.<br />
<br />
If 2011 travel patterns are similar <a href="http://www.dmg.utoronto.ca/pdf/tts/2006/travel_summaries_for_the_gtha/Toronto/PD_1.pdf">to those of 2006</a>, it's probably safe to say that most of those drivers are commuting to jobs in the suburban GTA, rather than downtown adjacent areas like Riverdale and Little Italy.<br />
This suggests that traveling from the suburbs to downtown, where most take transit is much more practical than the reverse where most seem to drive. Cars are largely unnecessary aside from reverse commuting, and the <a href="http://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2013/04/25/toronto_condo_parking_spaces_can_fetch_60k.html">high cost of condo parking spots</a> should negate any small advantage in congestion levels from reverse commuting.<br />
<br />
There are several reasons why reverse commuting by transit might be impractical. GO transit to the outer suburbs is much more limited in the reverse peak direction. In addition, many suburban GO transit users will drive to the train (or bus) station and use park and ride lots due to the low quality suburban transit service for the "first mile" between their homes and the train station. This means even where two way GO transit does exist, reverse peak commuters can't take their cars with them on the train to use for the "last mile" between the train station and their workplace.<br />
<br />
Suburban housing is also often easier to serve by transit than employment. Much of the suburban bus routes run on arterial roads, which are often lined with denser more affordable housing, which means residents, especially the residents that are least likely to own cars and therefore most likely to take transit, are clustered around bus routes. Even lower density housing is often within reach of these bus routes. This is good for getting suburbanites to take transit downtown, but for getting people to jobs in the suburbs, what matters is the location of jobs relative to transit.<br />
So where do the jobs cluster? As <a href="http://urbankchoze.blogspot.ca/2014/10/highway-oriented-development-know-thine.html">discussed on urbankchoze</a>, suburban highways tend to attract retail and employment uses looking to maximize their catchment area of customers and potential employees, and aren't as bothered by the noise and visual impacts like residents would be.<br />
<br />
Within Toronto, regional malls often locate next to highways, but the smaller shopping plazas, the type anchored by grocery stores will also locate at arterial road intersections. These shopping plazas tend to have smaller catchment areas - people don't want to drive more than 10 minutes for basic retail needs - and Toronto doesn't have that many highways <br />
<br />
On the other hand, most people would still consider 30 minutes a reasonable commute, which makes it feasible and desirable for employers to locate virtually all major employment near highways. This map <a href="https://ericvery.wordpress.com/2014/01/04/watch-60-years-of-office-growth-in-the-greater-toronto-area/">posted on Amalgamated</a> shows most suburban office space is near highways, especially the 401 in Mississauga and the DVP/404. While I'm not sure how many downtown residents work in industrial parks, those are also located along highways.<br />
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<img alt="https://ericvery.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/2010-office.gif" class="overflowing" height="408" src="https://ericvery.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/2010-office.gif" width="640" /></div>
<br />
Obviously being next to highway interchanges will make driving very convenient, leading to sprawling office campuses with gigantic parking lots separating them from the street, a model that <a href="http://urbankchoze.blogspot.ca/2015/05/on-site-vs-off-site-parking-and-swedish_28.html">significantly disadvantages pedestrians and transit users</a>.<br />
<br />
There's also the fact that employment nodes that straddle a highway can be rather impractical to serve by transit since transit can't go on the highway and there are limited points for crossing the highway. One of the most egregious example in the GTA is probably the office and industrial cluster in Oakville, along QEW (403) frontage roads. Due to lack in diversity of uses, low density and near-zero connectivity to adjacent areas, Oakville Transit serves this area with a rush-hour only one way bus loop. This means you might have to sit on the bus as it passes your workplace on the wrong side of the highway before coming back on the right side in the other direction, or make the long walk across the highway and in pedestrian hostile environments.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ7HX0n7lUzgr9qSfSXmHAdPF3eFNLRjJNkHfj7gG5rnpWhViUSss7I373BBhRxl1FVbcG3vqTBUVm5sQ9cKVx197HvRoQeuWOJcBDpm89PDWaM52NI0jW2bBGa1OwAw8rCNE_aPRjAHE/s1600/QEW+offices.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="371" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ7HX0n7lUzgr9qSfSXmHAdPF3eFNLRjJNkHfj7gG5rnpWhViUSss7I373BBhRxl1FVbcG3vqTBUVm5sQ9cKVx197HvRoQeuWOJcBDpm89PDWaM52NI0jW2bBGa1OwAw8rCNE_aPRjAHE/s640/QEW+offices.png" width="640" /></a></div>
There are office parks with somewhat better street connectivity, but many of the suburban industrial parks similarly straddle highways, resulting in a disconnected street network. Many industrial parks also contain commercial uses including office clusters, so much of the office and industrial employment is in large employment zones with few off peak uses. This makes it <a href="http://www.humantransit.org/2015/05/email-of-the-week-transit-to-business-parks.html">impractical for the transit agency</a> to run reasonably good bus service. Single use residential is not as bad and can still spread out transit demand throughout the day since residents will leave home for work, shopping, school, entertainment and other destinations at various times.<br />
<br />
The auto-oriented nature of suburban jobs is likely a major factor in the rate of car ownership among downtown residents. About half of downtown car owners drive to work, and probably many others own a car because they used to work outside downtown and may have to do so again in the future. Many downtown residents are young people who live there for the lifestyle, and to be close to the region's most significant concentration of good jobs and economic opportunities, but they may still have to commute to locations outside downtown at some points in their careers.<br />
<br />
<br />
Making it easier for downtown residents to go car-free is important due to the high cost of underground parking. Requiring a lot parking for new development is also a major obstacle for small scale intensification, since lots are too small to fit underground parking ramps. Facilitating development in the core by reducing parking needs is important because of the low per capita transportation needs. We always hear about the need for investing in transportation infrastructure, but it's also clear that paying for all the projects on peoples' wish lists will be very difficult, so it's important that infrastructure is used efficiently.<br />
<br />
It's also important to reduce the need for using cars downtown because auto capacity of downtown roads is limited compared to current demand, and yet at the same time, a lot of space downtown is dedicated to cars. Having lower auto-mode share, even lower than it currently is, will make it politically easier to transfer car space to pedestrians, transit and bikes, which also need more space downtown, and can use the space more efficiently than cars.<br />
<br />
Fortunately, it seems like office space construction is shifting back towards the core. Although the urban core contains about half of the GTA's total office space, it is home to about 70% of office space under construction. Hopefully suburban office construction begins to shift towards more mixed use transit nodes, such as the Urban Growth Centres, although it's unclear to what extent this is happening. Many of these growth centres haven't had a major office development in over a decade, while development continues along the 401 and QEW.<br />
<br />
Most of this post focused on commuting, but what about non-commute trips? Those are also very significant, and auto-mode share for those is higher. While there are 28,000 downtown residents commute to work by car, <a href="http://www.dmg.utoronto.ca/pdf/tts/2011/travel_summaries_by_ward/toronto_wards11.pdf">Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2011)</a> results suggest there are are comparable or slightly greater number of non-work auto trips made by downtown residents. For trips made by all GTA residents to or from downtown, non-work auto trips also outnumber auto commute trips.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-74021927179953624222015-06-27T11:39:00.003-04:002015-07-12T18:02:55.352-04:00Where do the cars in Toronto come from? Part 1In discussions on traffic in downtown Toronto, suburbanites from the 905 area code (outer suburbs) are a common scapegoat, but are they really the ones causing most of the traffic and congestion?<br />
<br />
According to <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/transportation/2015/01/16/road-to-transit-heaven-will-be-paved-with-facts-james.html">an article</a> from earlier this year, maybe not. Use of transit by 905ers to commute to jobs downtown has increased significantly from 55% in 1986 to 74% in 2011, with the increase being driven by GO Transit which operates a commuter rail and bus network. This means 905 suburbanites are now taking transit to workplaces in downtown Toronto at an equal rate to residents of Toronto proper.<br />
<br />
However, most 905ers don't work in Downtown Toronto, but in other suburbs or in more outlying and auto-oriented parts of Toronto proper, which is probably why the mode share for all commute trips (and not just downtown commutes) for 905ers is dominated by driving. In Brampton, Toronto's second largest suburb, and home to over 500,000 residents, only 4% of workers work in Downtown Toronto, and no suburb has more than 12% of their workers commuting to downtown.<br />
<br />
As a result, there are fewer people driving downtown for work from Peel Region suburbs, home to 1.3 million residents, than from the area described as "North of Downtown", mostly streetcar suburbs between Bloor and the 401, and home to less than 200,000 residents. There's more people driving to work to downtown Toronto<b> from Downtown Toronto</b> than from the entirety of Durham Region, home to about 600,000 people, mostly because a much larger percentage of Downtowners work in Downtown than the percentage of Durham residents. Car mode share for Downtown-Downtown commutes is 7%, compared to 19% for Durham-Downtown commutes. Very low car mode share for such short Downtown-Downtown trips should be expected, although the amount of downtown traffic per trip created by Downtown residents is still significant because auto mode share is significantly higher for commutes to jobs outside downtown.<br />
<br />
Despite being home to less than half of the Greater Toronto Area's population, the city of Toronto accounts for 2/3 of people who drive to downtown for work, because most downtown workers live in Toronto, not the 905 suburbs.<br />
<br />
What's the significance of this? It seems to suggest most people don't choose to take transit vs the car for ideological reasons, but based on what's most practical. For residents along the Lakeshore East and Lakeshore West GO train lines especially, service into downtown is fast, reliable, comfortable and increasingly frequent, especially during rush-hour. Meanwhile driving is unreliable since congestion levels vary from one day to the next, and so it can be quite slow, and downtown parking is expensive. If auto mode share of <20% can be achieved for commuters from Oakville, Pickering, and other Lakeshore East/West communities, it can probably also be brought below 20% for communities along the other lines if service is improved.<br />
<br />
It's also significant because it suggests that the greatest potential for reducing downtown traffic is not by improving transit for the 905 suburbs, but for residents of Toronto proper. There are parts of the city from which it's difficult to get to downtown using the TTC. Toronto proper is poorly served by GO transit, but improved service on the GO rail corridors could fill many of the gaps in the TTC network. GO transit is significantly faster than the subway and operates on more corridors than the subway. Toronto has about half as many GO stations per capita as the suburbs, despite being denser, having a better network of potential feeder buses/streetcars, and having a higher proportion of residents heading to destinations along GO train lines (most notably, downtown). There are probably about a dozen locations within Toronto where new stations would be justified.<br />
<br />
There is also the question of cost. GO transit fares do depend loosely on distance, but the cost per km is still much higher for shorter trips than for long trips. Even for the shortest trips, GO transit fares are at least $5 and do not allow any transfers within GO or to the TTC. Meanwhile, a $3 TTC ticket allows unlimited transfers within the TTC. Toronto lacks the space for large commuter parking lots and garages at much of its stations, so taking the TTC to GO stations should be encouraged, but TTC riders don't get their $3 TTC fare discounted when using GO while drivers can park for free where parking exists (mainly in the suburbs).<br />
<br />
Frequencies are sometimes not that great either. Although peak frequencies get to 15-20min on some lines, other lines have lower frequencies, only every 45min for the Richmond Hill line. Service is also limited to peak hours and peak direction on all but the Lakeshore Lines. GO bus provides fast though infrequent off-peak service between downtown and the suburbs, moving people faster than the subway, but does not serve the non-downtown parts of the city.<br />
<br />
The idea of <a href="http://www.neptis.org/publications/go-transit-and-promise-regional-express-rail">regional express rail</a> could provide significant transit improvements to not just the more poorly served suburbs but to Toronto proper too. Electrification would allow for more frequent service, and additional stations without increasing travel times. <br />
<br />
The next post will look at statistics at the ward level, to see which parts of Toronto have high car ownership and auto use, and which parts don't.<br />
<br />
<br />
*It's worth noting that suburbanites driving to and parking at the train station and then riding the train still count as having taken transit to downtown, since most of the length of their trip was by transit, even though they also drove. One difference with GO transit compared to the Toronto subway is that a significant portion of users get to the stations by car, and most of the rest by transit, whereas most subway users get to the station by bus or sometimes streetcar or walking, and rarely by car.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-48800518248586665752015-06-05T22:38:00.000-04:002015-07-12T18:02:48.624-04:00Rexdale, bastion of Toronto's middle classThe last post showed that Toronto's "middle income" areas are not necessarily those with the greatest income diversity, or even the largest middle class. This was done using data at the level of Federal Electoral District (FED), which each have a population of about 100,000. <br />
<br />
In fact, in Toronto proper, the FED with the largest middle class* is North Etobicoke, also known as Rexdale, despite being among Toronto's lower income FEDs (see bottom of post).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWMplrtN5WpGtEPZ5dRpcaorR0gkIPX2JRTWGYsX256Lt2rUTzgxBnWbHZ0NuE0IpHuM4R_MFZJd4q2OstawCJ9MOPRep4dND09sgW1YALnykE21OW9zAfht1tLpiF5cU2Y2j54AkAisQ/s1600/Toronto+middle+class+%252840%2525%2529.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="585" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWMplrtN5WpGtEPZ5dRpcaorR0gkIPX2JRTWGYsX256Lt2rUTzgxBnWbHZ0NuE0IpHuM4R_MFZJd4q2OstawCJ9MOPRep4dND09sgW1YALnykE21OW9zAfht1tLpiF5cU2Y2j54AkAisQ/s640/Toronto+middle+class+%252840%2525%2529.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The
middle class is largely concentrated in Brampton, adjacent parts of
Toronto and other suburbs, and in eastern part of the GTA in Scarborough
and Durham Region. It's smallest in Toronto's core, and in the northern and
western suburbs.<br />
The lowest income FED in Toronto - Humber River-Black Creek - which includes Jane-Finch, Emery, Humber Summit, Chalkfarm and York University has the 3rd largest middle class of Toronto's 25 FEDs. North Etobicoke and Humber River-Black Creek have low average incomes not because of a small middle class, but because of a lower/working class that greatly outnumbers the upper class.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, Willowdale, which is the most middle income of Toronto's FEDs, ranks only 20th out of 25 for the size of its middle class. The FED with the smallest middle class is Don Valley West, which is also Toronto's wealthiest. Don Valley West contains wealthy streetcar suburbs and very wealthy large lot suburbs, as well as the low income apartment community of Thorncliffe Park separated from the wealthy neighbourhoods by an industrial park and railway line.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNvioRf4prb4M3s9OaseXSSULNNUQTHRm_JanWAqYJiMRaI6z2oB-Wti_ai1GuqFGyCKktsYmE4pQd-gq4xTzPCVPqcasoUztXj0y71keJZCF354QBuQmz_z8PDmWV-Py9Yu5lHWS3riE/s1600/Toronto+avg+income+vs+middle+class.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNvioRf4prb4M3s9OaseXSSULNNUQTHRm_JanWAqYJiMRaI6z2oB-Wti_ai1GuqFGyCKktsYmE4pQd-gq4xTzPCVPqcasoUztXj0y71keJZCF354QBuQmz_z8PDmWV-Py9Yu5lHWS3riE/s1600/Toronto+avg+income+vs+middle+class.png" /></a></div>
(remember, 5.5 is the average, since the deciles are numbered 1-10 and not 0-10) <br />
<br />
In fact, within Toronto, the general trend appears to be one where the FEDs with the lowest average income have the largest middle class, and the size of the middle class shrinks as average incomes increase.<br />
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The trend is similar in the Greater Toronto Area suburbs, although these lack any low income FEDs.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgsFspqTN6-OD2hhzlXeiN8SxR-UhQ2q4JEIxiW4aQuP4dq51_-OYmqShf1cUVa5z2FohrgxUmHpHpyyG3dh4js6qb2CuBC7x7yjuoa6ZJX-ADH3byMJFs2ujgB8JjgR4aEq2WoxPM-8Y/s1600/905+avg+income+vs+middle+class.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgsFspqTN6-OD2hhzlXeiN8SxR-UhQ2q4JEIxiW4aQuP4dq51_-OYmqShf1cUVa5z2FohrgxUmHpHpyyG3dh4js6qb2CuBC7x7yjuoa6ZJX-ADH3byMJFs2ujgB8JjgR4aEq2WoxPM-8Y/s1600/905+avg+income+vs+middle+class.png" /></a></div>
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However, combining the City of Toronto with the GTA suburbs causes the trend to break down, as the middle income suburban FEDs tend to have a larger middle class than the lower income City of Toronto FEDs. <br />
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So how about the members of other income categories, how are they distributed across the GTA?<br />
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The upper-middle class looks like it can still be priced out of certain neighbourhoods. While North-Central Toronto has a large upper class population, the upper-middle class population is still relatively small. Nonetheless, the upper middle class can still (and do) live away from the neighbourhoods with large low income populations in the east and northwest of the city proper. The upper-middle class largely lives in the suburbs, although there seem to still be some in the parts of the urban core where a house/rowhouse is still somewhat affordable of where there are a lot of condos (probably yuppies?).<br />
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<br />
While the middle class was relatively unsegregated, the upper class is the most segregated income group in the Toronto area. Not only do they avoid the lower-income eastern and northwestern parts of Toronto, they also largely avoid certain suburban areas such as middle class Brampton. The upper class mostly live in areas with good access to high paying jobs and with high end homes, both near downtown and in the suburbs.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_EFqPNiXGolUUimCiX5NhzUeHKaLM0ch8TIe9lCGOyeaXZUsNgskIOmR10qULqb6fO_DhKpNj1OGgTAEWyQrNTFr95_ZJ-go6f6rWtydxBRJk71rZccQDkV0r4z09J-Ve0JGxcuLr9ug/s1600/Toronto+Upper+class.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_EFqPNiXGolUUimCiX5NhzUeHKaLM0ch8TIe9lCGOyeaXZUsNgskIOmR10qULqb6fO_DhKpNj1OGgTAEWyQrNTFr95_ZJ-go6f6rWtydxBRJk71rZccQDkV0r4z09J-Ve0JGxcuLr9ug/s640/Toronto+Upper+class.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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While most of the middle class can probably still afford buy single family homes (or townhouses) in the less expensive parts of the GTA, most of the lower-middle class probably cannot. They are mostly concentrated in the less expensive parts of Toronto, usually neighbourhoods that have a lot of older rental apartments. Perhaps there are also some cases of large (extended?) families living in lower cost single family homes.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTY8NBAyt35ghyphenhyphenZ1kqrpSSYgUjXafMn60dF1jzjTa06zTl3O9ZJdlfYUbml2QWTeU45cSXmBH4i6Gw1s0JEDWtyV3eL91inCOWRuxc0zw1jl2bxglKr2YThn0jIUxMIyRzHoXfWKMtd2Q/s1600/Toronto+working+class.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTY8NBAyt35ghyphenhyphenZ1kqrpSSYgUjXafMn60dF1jzjTa06zTl3O9ZJdlfYUbml2QWTeU45cSXmBH4i6Gw1s0JEDWtyV3eL91inCOWRuxc0zw1jl2bxglKr2YThn0jIUxMIyRzHoXfWKMtd2Q/s640/Toronto+working+class.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The low income population lives primarily in the city proper, with more moderate numbers in closer-in suburban areas. They mostly live in similar neighbourhoods to the lower-middle class, although perhaps in greater numbers in neighbourhoods with large amounts of public housing, especially in downtown areas. However, I'm not sure how to explain the large low income population in Willowdale and Rosedale-University.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHOMmCQC4ZZsFS0DP_4nUhE3cVqc1-uULM4NPwGHG_CbvJBGzFHdTbq43LX-iYT2LJRUSKycED_dJsSuYtNMCYB0rGLQhGmFmr4CXfE6PECzTYJWxW61y6Av2TnZmX-47WTwF4Ps9MyQ/s1600/Toronto+Lower+Class.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHOMmCQC4ZZsFS0DP_4nUhE3cVqc1-uULM4NPwGHG_CbvJBGzFHdTbq43LX-iYT2LJRUSKycED_dJsSuYtNMCYB0rGLQhGmFmr4CXfE6PECzTYJWxW61y6Av2TnZmX-47WTwF4Ps9MyQ/s640/Toronto+Lower+Class.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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And finally, a map of the average income decile of each FED.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-8uZIRWEt4YeBgUEia5YD-YAK40l8vupLPq9g2XnBwtTK0hbyE1BMK4WrYVfIKSGzwbjTrz8hY4CGopoOhq9T9hMnkbbY7iGOWaYIpShyYRCCDa84KVWo-4VsNDKP6hI_A6X9ETk29s/s1600/Toronto+avg+decile.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX-8uZIRWEt4YeBgUEia5YD-YAK40l8vupLPq9g2XnBwtTK0hbyE1BMK4WrYVfIKSGzwbjTrz8hY4CGopoOhq9T9hMnkbbY7iGOWaYIpShyYRCCDa84KVWo-4VsNDKP6hI_A6X9ETk29s/s640/Toronto+avg+decile.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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*I'm defining upper class as people who fall within the wealthiest decile of Ontario's income distribution, upper-middle class as the 2nd and 3rd decile, middle class as the 4th-7th decile, lower-middle class as the 8th and 9th decile and low income as the lowest decile.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-11511965939752033822015-02-26T17:59:00.000-05:002015-07-12T18:02:32.987-04:00Mapping Toronto income diversityIt's often been said that Toronto's core is gentrifying, it's poverty is suburbanizing, and it's middle class is shrinking.<br />
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Often cited is <a href="http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/curp/tnrn/Three-Cities-Within-Toronto-2010-Final.pdf">a report</a> that came out a few years ago.<br />
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It shows a 1970 Toronto where poverty is mostly concentrated in the urban core neighbourhoods. The majority of the city is made up of middle income neighbourhoods, which are mostly found in the post-WWII auto-oriented parts of the city.<br />
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Forward to 2005, and core neighbourhoods have gone from poor to more of a mix. The majority of the post-WWII neighbourhoods that were middle income became low income, and wealthy areas have gotten wealthier.<br />
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But what this mean for income diversity? A neighbourhood with a large wealthy and poor population might be middle income on average, but have a small middle class. You could also have a neighbourhood with a large middle class, but which is unable to attract wealthy residents and has zoned out low income residents.<br />
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Neighbourhoods with a high diversity of incomes are probably quite rare, especially those where the diversity exists at a highly local level, and where the neighbourhood's income diversity remains high for a significant period of time.<br />
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Here's a map showing income diversity of electoral districts across Toronto. Electoral districts have about 100,000 residents (more detailed map of boundaries <a href="http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=ON">here</a>). A value of 0 means they perfectly match the CMA income distribution while high numbers represent high income segregation.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp25DGvMhKLQJfG_CE2dxZyij5_1ErSnle-TQBt_tk2q11CYUIM4Kbw1O0WPCqbgHW0r10hR0Wb5jqtOFUipI85YYqhXj7_r2XReAtVbhfUbJ89FSvwr3RTo49pea8iZv0P205p7ctKAI/s1600/Toronto+Income+Diversity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="585" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp25DGvMhKLQJfG_CE2dxZyij5_1ErSnle-TQBt_tk2q11CYUIM4Kbw1O0WPCqbgHW0r10hR0Wb5jqtOFUipI85YYqhXj7_r2XReAtVbhfUbJ89FSvwr3RTo49pea8iZv0P205p7ctKAI/s640/Toronto+Income+Diversity.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Urban neighbourhoods have at times been touted for their income
diversity, while suburbs in North America have often been seen as
homogeneous, whether that's homogeneously wealthy, middle class or lower income.<br />
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However, the electoral districts with the highest income diversity in the Toronto CMA are in the suburbs. The least diverse districts are in a variety of locations, some in the core, some in aging inner suburbs, and some in the outer suburbs, with a variety of income groups that are under or over-represented.<br />
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Here are graphs showing the income distributions of the 8 districts with the least income diversity.<br />
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First, there are the aging formerly middle income inner suburbs.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh35kkuTz7vzCjLNh9W7rDOrMVS8QKNl4X9CEub8EEtQAYtnQcZs3gd5AJgkDTwSxjfxFmXsIn-U1-1Hvz1g5CU05vej0XbftMDS7KkzayVO42nYYUkc0xXYvRJ2oEvQZvI24Kl78y8m_M/s1600/Graph+Small+upper.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh35kkuTz7vzCjLNh9W7rDOrMVS8QKNl4X9CEub8EEtQAYtnQcZs3gd5AJgkDTwSxjfxFmXsIn-U1-1Hvz1g5CU05vej0XbftMDS7KkzayVO42nYYUkc0xXYvRJ2oEvQZvI24Kl78y8m_M/s640/Graph+Small+upper.png" width="640" /></a></div>
These were mostly blue collar areas when they were built, back when blue collar meant middle class, and now have average incomes well below the CMA average. However, it's not that their middle class is small. It's the share of the population that is lower income that is well above average, and the share that is high income is well below average. Scarborough North, Scarborough Agincourt and Scarborough Centre follow a similar though slightly less extreme pattern.<br />
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Next you have two electoral districts in the outer suburbs with almost completely opposite income distributions.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivAQMLX7IUqzIZSkB5OYDxiI2gipU_yknMMfpcTIENX3rxImTzBjyEvAl7M9ffewByJL7PG0f-ob7cKr8Uxp0EFoL5fhsMRRb5hqpr0L3XW03UPiPGjlJtxK7OuVh3ve4a5Sobea60w8Y/s1600/Graph+big+upper.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivAQMLX7IUqzIZSkB5OYDxiI2gipU_yknMMfpcTIENX3rxImTzBjyEvAl7M9ffewByJL7PG0f-ob7cKr8Uxp0EFoL5fhsMRRb5hqpr0L3XW03UPiPGjlJtxK7OuVh3ve4a5Sobea60w8Y/s640/Graph+big+upper.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Much of Oakville's housing stock is similar in age to the declining inner suburbs closer to Toronto, however, many parts are gentrifying as older ranch homes are replaced with multi-million dollar homes.<br />
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There are a few differences between Oakville and places like North Etobicoke, although it's hard to say which are most important<br />
-Less aging multi-family housing and housing projects<br />
-Bigger lots, which means more space to build a big new home<br />
-Close to the fastest and most frequent commuter rail line into Downtown Toronto<br />
-Quaint downtown and close to Lake Ontario<br />
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Oakville-North Burlington is mostly large suburban developments built after 1990 in the northern parts of Oakville and Burlington.<br />
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Finally, you have the electoral districts with a small middle class. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBAUW2ONEFplEZcaGZz6H90Mo1335BooUg9Vn5wCjkunYoh3oZ6UNq3RBedtYGl0UxbB3k4mTv9m39u77HfZpJda-7H9ctSGS9Qu4YuJE9s3MPlCS9iD_lFOzRrszohQPr2Uai9dXMG6U/s1600/Graph+small+middle.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBAUW2ONEFplEZcaGZz6H90Mo1335BooUg9Vn5wCjkunYoh3oZ6UNq3RBedtYGl0UxbB3k4mTv9m39u77HfZpJda-7H9ctSGS9Qu4YuJE9s3MPlCS9iD_lFOzRrszohQPr2Uai9dXMG6U/s640/Graph+small+middle.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Toronto Centre has the largest low income population share of any electoral districts in the metro area. It has large amounts of housing projects, homeless shelters and 60s/70s rental highrises, although it's also home to gentrified Cabbagetown. Rosedale-University is home to some of the wealthiest neighbourhoods in Toronto, but also some more working class areas west of Downtown. Don Valley West is home to very wealthy 1920s-1960s neighbourhoods, but also Thorncliffe Park, home to many of the most crowded apartment buildings in Toronto, and separated from the rest of the city by ravines a highway and industrial areas.<br />
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So how about the districts with the highest income diversity, how well do they match the metro area's income distribution?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9avAoEOLF0VJOjn4b3j2fMOtVhmax0luUU71LQhAmXwRk_1UFoaQ0__pG3b0QKSbFgE80vXmyED8Cw17zMdL2tDhog-RzADwIFsWLJ8mghMj9Mu1UyvZXEGNoWRUmkmIo-TeL3hz_0tE/s1600/Graph+diverse.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9avAoEOLF0VJOjn4b3j2fMOtVhmax0luUU71LQhAmXwRk_1UFoaQ0__pG3b0QKSbFgE80vXmyED8Cw17zMdL2tDhog-RzADwIFsWLJ8mghMj9Mu1UyvZXEGNoWRUmkmIo-TeL3hz_0tE/s640/Graph+diverse.png" width="640" /></a></div>
That's pretty close. Of course that's not to say the populations of various incomes are evenly distributed within these electoral districts.<br />
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These could be described as middle ring suburbs. They have more new housing than the inner suburbs, and more older housing than the outer suburbs and are growing at rate somewhere in between.<br />
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*The numbers are based on comparisons of population in each decile of Canada's income distribution from the 2011 National Household Survey. Statistics Canada has adjusted for these incomes by dividing after tax family income by the square root of family size, so a family of 4 earning $100,000 after tax is considered on equal footing to a single earning $50,000. The numbers are the sum of the standard deviations between the fraction of the CMA population and the fraction of the electoral district population in each income decile. The 2013 electoral district boundaries are used.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-56802291145287438802015-02-15T23:56:00.001-05:002015-07-12T18:01:24.940-04:00Black-white segregation in Detroit in 1960 vs 2010The <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/02/graphing-and-measuring-segregation.html">last blog post</a> compared the levels of segregation between whites and blacks in Atlanta and Detroit.<br />
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Detroit was more segregated, but has segregation in Detroit at least gone down compared to how it was in the past?<br />
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That's the focus of this post.<br />
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From the graphs, it's not entirely obvious that it has improved since 1960...<br />
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(See the <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/02/graphing-and-measuring-segregation.html">previous blog post</a> for a recap on the methodology)<br />
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The number of blacks* living in overwhelmingly black census tracts with virtually no whites* has increased, although the number of blacks living in mostly white census tracts has also increased a little.<br />
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At the same time, considering that blacks make up a larger part of the MSA population today than in 1960, you might expect them to have more blacks and fewer whites in their neighbourhoods (if segregation levels stayed the same). Again, the vertical lines are the MSA wide averages.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_nkDQeUC2ncEwOZr0pNTYWnxl_tnAS-FtrBLK69nEtKMqbHrSHS2ybbyjJiZIxUYxuKcFamSM9tz2YL8Wis1cUuUbFciEu9vsi9A967WdMAtqKneH_cdsOPx7vSACo5OrzczJwpWoyoM/s1600/Detroit+60+10+segr+White+%25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_nkDQeUC2ncEwOZr0pNTYWnxl_tnAS-FtrBLK69nEtKMqbHrSHS2ybbyjJiZIxUYxuKcFamSM9tz2YL8Wis1cUuUbFciEu9vsi9A967WdMAtqKneH_cdsOPx7vSACo5OrzczJwpWoyoM/s640/Detroit+60+10+segr+White+%25.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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With whites on the other hand, there has been a clear increase in the number of whites with at least a moderate minority (ie 5-20%) of blacks living in their census tracts. The change is even more pronounced when you look at the white share of the census tracts whites live in (last graph) since these census tracts have seen a significant increase in people that are neither white nor black, like Asians.</div>
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Overall stats<br />
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<b>Detroit 2010</b><br />
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Black population: 989,030<br />
White population: 3,054,833<br />
% Black: 22.78<br />
% White: 70.36<br />
% Other: 6.86<br />
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Census tract composition for the average black person<br />
% Black: 72.20 <br />
% White: 22.99<br />
% Other: 4.81<br />
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Census tract composition for the average white person<br />
% Black: 7.44<br />
% White: 85.89 <br />
% Other: 6.67<br />
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<b>Detroit 1960</b><br />
<br />
Black population: 558,868<br />
White population: 3,191,278<br />
% Black: 14.87<br />
% White: 84.91<br />
% Other: 0.22 <br />
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Census tract composition for the average black person<br />
% Black: 72.77 <br />
% White: 26.91<br />
% Other: 0.32<br />
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Census tract composition for the average white person<br />
% Black: 4.71<br />
% White: 95.09<br />
% Other: 0.20<br />
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<b>Overall segregation index**</b> <br />
1960: 3.08<br />
2010: 2.63<br />
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So although there has been a decrease in segregation, it has been relatively small. However, this doesn't tell the whole story. I suspect mixed race neighbourhoods in 1960 were mostly unstable and would become pre-dominantly black by 1970 due to white flight. In other words, if you lived in a mixed race neighbourhoods back then, it was likely only temporary unless you moved again. I suspect mixed neighbourhoods today, while they are sometimes still somewhat unstable, are much more stable than in the 1960s. I'll get into that more in a later post.<br />
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*Hispanics are counted as either black or white (or other), rather than as a separate race (unlike the previous post) since the 1960 census data doesn't specify the race of Hispanics.<br />
**unlike the previous blog post where the index only took into account how over-represented blacks and under-represented whites were in census tracts blacks lived in, this index also takes into account the situation for whites in the census tracts where they live.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-13847086040570261012015-02-04T01:40:00.000-05:002019-12-19T14:53:21.264-05:00Graphing and measuring segregation (Detroit and Atlanta)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
There have been a few attempts to measure segregation in American cities, although the most cited attempts have shortcomings with their methodology.<br />
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A <a href="http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/Data/Report/report2.pdf">common one</a> is looking at what percentage of a metro area's population would have to move for all census tracts to have an ethnic distribution equal to the metro area average. This tends to give an advantage to cities that are dominated by a single rate (whites, with the exception of a few border cities).<br />
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For example, in a city that is 90% white and 10% black, and fully segregated with all the whites living in all white census tracts and all the blacks living in all black census tracts, 90% of the 10% blacks would have to move, and 10% of the 90% whites would have to move, so that 0.9*10+0.1*90 = 18% of the metro area would have to move.<br />
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A city that is 50% white and 50% black with half the city that is 25% white/75% black and the other half that is 75% white/25% black would have to have to have a quarter of the population of each half move, so 25% of the metro area.<br />
<br />
Although the half white, half black metro area is still relatively segregated, I think most would agree it is still much less segregated than the 90% white, 10% black city.<br />
<br />
I think a better way to measure segregation is to compare the census tract composition where the average member of a certain group lives to the metro area average.<br />
<br />
Detroit is considered one of the most black-white segregated cities, and Atlanta is one of the least black-white segregated among large cities with large black populations.<br />
<br />
Here are the 2010 Stats<br />
<br />
Detroit MSA:<br />
<br />
Black population: 983,367<br />
% Black: 22.65<br />
% Non-Hispanic White: 68.18<br />
% Other: 9.17 <br />
Census tract composition for the average black person<br />
72.09% black <br />
21.82% white<br />
6.09% other<br />
<br />
Atlanta MSA:<br />
<br />
Black population: 1,618,633<br />
% Black: 31.58<br />
% Non-Hispanic White: 52.06<br />
% Other: 16.36<br />
Census tract composition for the average black person<br />
68.63% black <br />
17.24% white<br />
14.13% other<br />
<br />
Now there's a bunch of different indexes you could come up with based on this, so feel free to use this data to come up with your own indexes. My index will be to take to average of how many times too many blacks and how many times too few whites there are.<br />
<br />
For example, the average census tract blacks of the Detroit MSA live in has 3.18x more blacks than the MSA average, and 3.12x fewer whites than the MSA average. The average of these two is 3.15. So a completely unsegregated metro area would have a value of 1, a segregated one would have a very high number (technically could be infinity).<br />
<br />
So using my segregation index<br />
Detroit: 3.15<br />
Atlanta: 2.60<br />
<br />
It's also nice to see the data graphically. For maps, there's several good ones.<br />
<br />
http://www.socialexplorer.com/89AACD3A4F1E4E1/explore<br />
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map<br />
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/<br />
http://www.urbanresearchmaps.org/comparinator/pluralitymap.htm<br />
<br />
However, I haven't really seen attempts to graph this, so I decided to do so.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcL-rQtq2vXtYUDyw74hJ3-ADcV83wAQfB-maloA-XsCQjAk0NqigiZVGTB1YFi4UjjItK9ucQXuQVhx_2QF6fbuBp361ICiGcAP1sIbXvHhzpF4y49LNcg-5aYHElc2Yz0E_HUFDpbM/s1600/Detroit+Atl+Black%25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcL-rQtq2vXtYUDyw74hJ3-ADcV83wAQfB-maloA-XsCQjAk0NqigiZVGTB1YFi4UjjItK9ucQXuQVhx_2QF6fbuBp361ICiGcAP1sIbXvHhzpF4y49LNcg-5aYHElc2Yz0E_HUFDpbM/s640/Detroit+Atl+Black%25.png" width="640" /></a></div>
So this shows the % of MSA blacks by black % +/- 2% at the census tract level.<br />
<br />
For example, 23.5% of Metro Detroit blacks live in census tracts that are 96-100% black. About 8.5% of Metro Atlanta blacks live in census tracts that are 36-40% black.<br />
<br />
The vertical line shows the MSA average, so if metro area was highly integrated, the curves would peak there. Instead, they peak at the far right end, as far to the right as possible for Detroit, and only slightly better for Atlanta. But you can see that a bigger chunk of Atlanta's black population lives in more integrated census tracts.<br />
<br />
Alright, but how are these integrated? Are the non-blacks all Hispanic or other minorities, or is there a chance of blacks in these cities having white neighbours too? Atlanta does have more Hispanics than Detroit...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPmr3Tf2BVReJOMm5FVbX9wnUst9VblQ5UUveSVEX-0vP88uELl58p8L4szV1yNalVZHWK0Q036cQjQ3E2cR0KZKIqJRaXygJQ4k5lbDSvwbRai8YT1A0-mlc6bNHIVbSeYJqmpqRMRPA/s1600/Detroit+Atl+White%25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPmr3Tf2BVReJOMm5FVbX9wnUst9VblQ5UUveSVEX-0vP88uELl58p8L4szV1yNalVZHWK0Q036cQjQ3E2cR0KZKIqJRaXygJQ4k5lbDSvwbRai8YT1A0-mlc6bNHIVbSeYJqmpqRMRPA/s640/Detroit+Atl+White%25.png" width="640" /></a></div>
However, it still looks like Detroit is less integrated, although both cities are highly segregated.</div>
NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-40561519767725303612015-01-28T02:39:00.000-05:002015-07-12T18:00:40.763-04:00Historic racial changes in DetroitThis is the 3rd post in a series on rapid changes in race/ethnicity.<br />
<br />
The first two compared Detroit to Houston, with <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/rapid-changes-in-racialethnic.html">the first post</a> mapping where the changes occurred, and <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/rapid-changes-in-racialethnic_22.html">the second post</a> putting some specific numbers on how much things changed.<br />
<br />
For this blog, I'll be focusing on how current changes in metro Detroit compare to earlier decades.<br />
<br />
I've defined "rapid" as a change of more than 20 percentage points, and focused only on situations where the white population decreased and visible minorities decreased.<br />
<br />
So for example, a census tract that was 70% white in 2000 would have to be 50% white or less in 2010 to qualify.<br />
<br />
For a refresher, here's what the situation was for the 2000-2010 period.<br />
<br />
Areas in blue show census tracts where the fastest growing minority was blacks, orange is for Hispanics and red is for Asians. The table adds up the total populations for all areas where blacks grew fast, all areas where Hispanics grew fastest, and all areas where Asians grew fastest, and then the total of all the census tracts where the white population share decreased by 20+ percentage points.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXuwYLf2UKOcE8n0R0_BvW7eDdi8nxJ65HPFES4oEjRGPaOFHtDY1lLzG7yEL4WBnHHfEMDYwZZhiCxLM6Ck8QVbDVOlYxon4hZn6dlYT8PDBiNxST9arzuNFTonxQB0QtxGPYXGznDtQ/s1600/VM+Detroit+ethnicity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="501" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXuwYLf2UKOcE8n0R0_BvW7eDdi8nxJ65HPFES4oEjRGPaOFHtDY1lLzG7yEL4WBnHHfEMDYwZZhiCxLM6Ck8QVbDVOlYxon4hZn6dlYT8PDBiNxST9arzuNFTonxQB0QtxGPYXGznDtQ/s640/VM+Detroit+ethnicity.png" width="640" /> </a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqY7ZKsM3XXNT1AleZ3MMfK1QslCFkULR8PsFoPQ5S60X-lb2emMSVSn8yUvCjEIrdI6RPMd5GCpogR21AMOFwLjf3HXg_RIdMlfiJ7eEZEJ7tE6ylQ2XbqhIQrMXaH1YbK8KjpI7hXJo/s1600/VM+Detroit+00s+Stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqY7ZKsM3XXNT1AleZ3MMfK1QslCFkULR8PsFoPQ5S60X-lb2emMSVSn8yUvCjEIrdI6RPMd5GCpogR21AMOFwLjf3HXg_RIdMlfiJ7eEZEJ7tE6ylQ2XbqhIQrMXaH1YbK8KjpI7hXJo/s1600/VM+Detroit+00s+Stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqY7ZKsM3XXNT1AleZ3MMfK1QslCFkULR8PsFoPQ5S60X-lb2emMSVSn8yUvCjEIrdI6RPMd5GCpogR21AMOFwLjf3HXg_RIdMlfiJ7eEZEJ7tE6ylQ2XbqhIQrMXaH1YbK8KjpI7hXJo/s1600/VM+Detroit+00s+Stats.png" /></a></div>
Regarding the 90s, in the 2000 census, a new category seems to have been created - "2 races or more", so it sounds like for the 1990 census and earlier, mixed race people had to pick a race. I decided to assume that these people would have chosen a race other than white in the 1990 census (I know, not perfect, but what else can I do?). As a result, in some places the fastest growing "minority group" was "2 races or more" which is shown in green.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvujNLUdRI7NuRRmfuJVY6SMRzzOXgqm0nIXLjJ64V79fzNX2iX4YtxW09Eq6n0u2rQagfixTYLKm1nERpHflloGhXrP-h-RPzv_iyF6tQgs9vhFMkxSL2coZsA5aEFt15N9xX8E0lxNw/s1600/Detroit+90s+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="503" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvujNLUdRI7NuRRmfuJVY6SMRzzOXgqm0nIXLjJ64V79fzNX2iX4YtxW09Eq6n0u2rQagfixTYLKm1nERpHflloGhXrP-h-RPzv_iyF6tQgs9vhFMkxSL2coZsA5aEFt15N9xX8E0lxNw/s640/Detroit+90s+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
It looks like the changes in Southfield were happening faster in the 90s than in the 00s. Also, aside from Southfield, Hamtramck and Pontiac, these rapid racial changes were mostly occurring in Detroit's outer neighbourhoods, including a substantial Hispanic influx to SW Detroit that seems to have slowed in the 00s. In the 00s, the changes mostly occurred in census tracts in inner suburbs.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFApGBHllAfuflrC4MZt3vLNhfAZddr-hsCmGYmFbf5fqC6J87IUAghhOdklvsngfhM8plDhMBKez6HFiFtaayLIjkQNnd4pCjdkcJPOBo2JLsdvms7tZcGBJ0BbTJYGH9jDDANBCGeLw/s1600/Detroit+90s+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFApGBHllAfuflrC4MZt3vLNhfAZddr-hsCmGYmFbf5fqC6J87IUAghhOdklvsngfhM8plDhMBKez6HFiFtaayLIjkQNnd4pCjdkcJPOBo2JLsdvms7tZcGBJ0BbTJYGH9jDDANBCGeLw/s1600/Detroit+90s+table.png" /></a></div>
The changes were happening faster in the 90s, with the white population share dropping by 32 percentage points (vs 25 percentage points in the 00s). They also affected about 75% more people than in the 00s, and Hispanics played a bigger role in driving these changes. Also like in the 00s, the population in these census tracts grew a little.<br />
<br />
Move on to the 80s, the 1980 census used "Persons of Spanish Origin" instead of Hispanics. I'm assuming they're more or less equivalent, in which case blacks made up the bulk of the minority share in all areas where it increased by over 20 percentage points: <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBdc1WPsyAQ9-IO4YKDPg9ovi-GJsfKgdLGaDL-k4JJKZ8Xkj1RlvTVbwsxNeAwQvDh7x2DYs7tQkTHIJ62Pk_bMvNqqwjeVOzw382sVJ7sF2qNKPqQyH1v_cxDtvEE1Y9M4EwplGNc9I/s1600/Detroit+80s+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBdc1WPsyAQ9-IO4YKDPg9ovi-GJsfKgdLGaDL-k4JJKZ8Xkj1RlvTVbwsxNeAwQvDh7x2DYs7tQkTHIJ62Pk_bMvNqqwjeVOzw382sVJ7sF2qNKPqQyH1v_cxDtvEE1Y9M4EwplGNc9I/s640/Detroit+80s+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The changes were mostly affecting outer neighbourhoods of Detroit, although a few of the outermost neighbourhoods weren't too affected yet. Outside Detroit, they mostly affected Southfield/Oak Park. <br />
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The numbers are somewhat similar to what they were in the 90s in terms of total population affected, although the 90s saw other ethnic groups play a bigger role, so the 80s had more neighbourhoods transitioning from white to black than the 90s. The changes were a bit faster too, and the areas affected lost a bit of population. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5k7DrzPnGTGLF68JyT38lyum3PAEI1v-mBA78oLNW_juLeYkrbTKAhb3_3hWc3Toqm4-H22mzNc9viyNTzxKq8ix1D9lj-A63D2KR13LRwOnzO-GZAGEZmEZcLMcA_RUsDP6iNO4VPEo/s1600/Detroit+80s+table.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5k7DrzPnGTGLF68JyT38lyum3PAEI1v-mBA78oLNW_juLeYkrbTKAhb3_3hWc3Toqm4-H22mzNc9viyNTzxKq8ix1D9lj-A63D2KR13LRwOnzO-GZAGEZmEZcLMcA_RUsDP6iNO4VPEo/s1600/Detroit+80s+table.png" /></a></div>
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The 70s are tricky again. For the 80s onwards, the census distinguished between Hispanics of the various races. In the 1970 census however, it only states how many people of Spanish origin there are without stating the race of people of Spanish origin, and instead of giving the number of Non-Hispanic whites it gives one number for all whites (Hispanic/Spanish or not).<br />
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In most of Metro Detroit there's very few people of Spanish origin so it doesn't matter, but in SW Detroit there are already some. It seems like most of the people of Spanish origin moving in to this area listed their race as "other" though (ie not white) so I could still use that.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQIXrVwfc4hitpSQOkBR2VVJvQYgg1Zlgj9EaqZXAJzIoP1O22hoB_iTry3t_jIkVYefTRTENZhMwqJ_k3OvDWDDrlCO58QLm8osGlzB9R864ToPh4y9rMuqpmz5mt83fCMOKDmRz0QkE/s1600/Detroit+70s+map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="515" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQIXrVwfc4hitpSQOkBR2VVJvQYgg1Zlgj9EaqZXAJzIoP1O22hoB_iTry3t_jIkVYefTRTENZhMwqJ_k3OvDWDDrlCO58QLm8osGlzB9R864ToPh4y9rMuqpmz5mt83fCMOKDmRz0QkE/s640/Detroit+70s+map.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Large chunks of Detroit are affected, as well as Highland Park, Pontiac, and only a little in the other suburbs. For anyone wondering what's going on in that census tract in Plymouth Township (left of image), the vast majority of residents of that census tract are inmates.<br />
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You can see an influx of people of "other" race and of Spanish origin in the Mexicantown area.<br />
<br />
The main thing though is that the population of neighbourhoods rapidly transitioning from white to black is considerably greater than in the 80s and 90s, and more than 3 times greater than in the 00s. The number of whites also decreased by 45 percentage points in these neighbourhoods vs 25 percentage points in the 00s, so we're talking about a decrease of 325,000 whites in these neighbourhoods as opposed to a decrease of only 54,000 whites for the 00s.<br />
<br />
And actually the situation in the 70s was probably even worse than it looks from these numbers. For example, many of these neighbourhoods were probably 99% white in 1970, and might have still been 98% white in 1975 and then dropped to 55% white by 1980. Or maybe it was already only 50% white in 1970, and then dropped to 10% white by 1975 and 3% white in 1980. Basically, because of how fast these neighbourhoods were changing, a decade is too long of a time scale.<br />
<br />
For evidence of this, here's how much the % white changed in some census tracts in NW Detroit around Greenfield Rd/Southfield Fwy. Neighbourhoods west of these census tracts changed more slowly, probably because white flight (and I think with this rate of change it's safe to say that's what it is) only started in those neighbourhoods in the mid-late 70s. Neighbourhoods to the east of these census tracts changed more slowly because they had fewer whites to lose.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyl20MsA5L0DhtasCSuM0UUEpU2PGA7cbfcl_V_ZWW-WbQwYo3IH5Sd6CO3bGtmo5LvEImXeD8VQEIQ5uUF8JxeWXUzsojLXEHm-2BH_l8P76URjSLdYWyjxadrQhMAsaWBNO7Ew2AJF8/s1600/NW+Detroit+70s+white+flight.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="568" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyl20MsA5L0DhtasCSuM0UUEpU2PGA7cbfcl_V_ZWW-WbQwYo3IH5Sd6CO3bGtmo5LvEImXeD8VQEIQ5uUF8JxeWXUzsojLXEHm-2BH_l8P76URjSLdYWyjxadrQhMAsaWBNO7Ew2AJF8/s640/NW+Detroit+70s+white+flight.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Going back further, to the 1960s, the pattern is about the same.<br />
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<br />
This is the part of NW Detroit (around Livernois to Meyers) that experienced the most intense white flight, again, a similar pattern to the 70s, just closer to the core. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOw5DikJqe3ABHqmrAg8tBFlF7gx23x9dhNCAdZFsI5e4MZkyR5LmfYKdpAixV0s_kidBU8-Pe1w6RZarOC7gFto2Bmph2zCRXon8fVGMakTZ6ot5SwRjjHOuvWmpHpJJ6aeHrhoYcyWQ/s1600/NW+Detroit+60s+white+flight.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="483" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOw5DikJqe3ABHqmrAg8tBFlF7gx23x9dhNCAdZFsI5e4MZkyR5LmfYKdpAixV0s_kidBU8-Pe1w6RZarOC7gFto2Bmph2zCRXon8fVGMakTZ6ot5SwRjjHOuvWmpHpJJ6aeHrhoYcyWQ/s640/NW+Detroit+60s+white+flight.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
For people who say white flight only began after the 1967 riots, it might be a bit tricky to explain this data.<br />
<br />
You'd have to explain:<br />
<br />
-Why was white flight so intense in some areas (100% white to 12% white in the most extreme case) while other areas experienced no white flight at all? Large chunks of Detroit were still over 98% white in 1970, and even in 1980 there were 15 census tracts in Detroit that were over 95% white.<br />
-How come white flight was just about as intense in the 60s as in the 70s when the 60s only includes 3 years that are post-1967?<br />
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It seems to me like white flight was already underway in several neighbourhoods before 1967, and it probably would have spread to other parts of Detroit without the riots, although the riots might have helped speed things up a little.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-25576941740670974462015-01-22T16:03:00.000-05:002015-08-15T23:22:36.934-04:00Rapid changes in racial/ethnic composition in Houston and Detroit continuedContinuing with the <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/rapid-changes-in-racialethnic.html">previous post</a> about census tracts that have experienced a 20+ percentage point increase in the visible minority share in Houston and Detroit, now here are numbers for how the populations changed.<br />
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What I've done is added up the census tracts for areas where the biggest increases in population share were by Asians, blacks and Hispanics respectively.<br />
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For example, Houston had 10 census tracts where the visible minority share increased by 20+ percentage points AND the visible minority group that saw the biggest increase in population share was Asians. The total populations of these 10 census tracts by race in 2000 and 2010 are given in the first section of the table below.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCRa5EeytLy0KvEBXCDwiQqViWVICoHJlZJqkVW9wi19B7T8MWmNPuIQo8eOijPC5axx2xRGWnZYDlxy3uaApXrF-RtO8o4SOBaoUQziMM83AYvRfS63o6k28vo_jNA7X5GSErU4Hh1V8/s1600/VM+Houston+Stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCRa5EeytLy0KvEBXCDwiQqViWVICoHJlZJqkVW9wi19B7T8MWmNPuIQo8eOijPC5axx2xRGWnZYDlxy3uaApXrF-RtO8o4SOBaoUQziMM83AYvRfS63o6k28vo_jNA7X5GSErU4Hh1V8/s1600/VM+Houston+Stats.png" /></a></div>
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What you see is that areas experiencing such large influxes in Asians have experienced rapid population growth, which is no surprise since <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2015/01/rapid-changes-in-racialethnic.html">from the maps</a> they're mostly on the suburban fringe (in Houston's W/SW suburbs). There has actually been a substantial influx of all races in these areas, including whites, it's just that the minority population grew even faster. <br />
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In areas where blacks or Hispanics were the fastest growing minority, you see that the white population did decrease, although not hugely, and the overall population still grew quite rapidly, at a rate significantly faster than the metro average.<br />
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You also see that areas where the Asian share grew fastest had relatively even numbers of Asians and Hispanics in 2000. The same is true for Blacks as for Asians. However, in the areas with the greatest influxes of Hispanics, Hispanics were already the dominant minority in 2000.<br />
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All in all, the combined population of these census tracts was almost 1 million, or about a sixth of the whole metro area. Also, there are a lot more census tracts where Hispanics were the fastest growing minority vs blacks or Asians. That shouldn't come as a surprise, since the net change at the metro area level was:<br />
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Whites: 80,427<br />
Asians: 155,631<br />
Hispanics: 747,275<br />
Blacks: 213,194<br />
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As for Detroit: <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif8i_4vq8uaDDH1NKAIm4_UKubuLKvWrMAF_nbCjHQ-K-5QVZEdX7RT2eofujN3Uuy6CkfSw6WWFnZyf6Em6NdF0-AlWzksEwn3JO7kYLeGsZyktqwVFolTo-ep10zWCOFZFkJ1gM9xCo/s1600/VM+Detroit+00s+Stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif8i_4vq8uaDDH1NKAIm4_UKubuLKvWrMAF_nbCjHQ-K-5QVZEdX7RT2eofujN3Uuy6CkfSw6WWFnZyf6Em6NdF0-AlWzksEwn3JO7kYLeGsZyktqwVFolTo-ep10zWCOFZFkJ1gM9xCo/s1600/VM+Detroit+00s+Stats.png" /></a></div>
Areas where Asians experienced the greatest increase in population share followed a similar pattern as in Houston, with the white population still increasing, just not as fast as other minorities.<br />
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In areas where blacks experienced the greatest increase in population share, it was mostly a case of whites moving out and blacks moving in, with a slight overall population loss. Compared to Houston, the initial (and final) white population share in these neighbourhoods was significantly higher.<br />
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Areas where Hispanics experienced the greatest increase in population share saw a slight increase in overall population, but that was not enough to avoid a substantial decrease in the white population. The black population in these census tracts increased as well, while Asians were never really a significant share of the population.<br />
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Compared to Houston, the total number of people in these neighbourhoods is lower (220k vs 988k), which shouldn't come as a surprise considering the much greater influx of minorities into the Houston area to drive these sorts of changes. The changes in Detroit were largely driven by blacks moving out of the city and into the suburbs, rather than an increase in the black population (Metro Detroit has actually lost not just whites but also blacks from 2000 to 2010).<br />
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While the Hispanic and Asian populations of Metro Detroit have grown, the 2000 population and influx during the 00s were fairly small so they played only a minor role in the changes in VM% in most of metro Detroit.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-21602145332490819552015-01-09T22:55:00.002-05:002015-08-15T12:49:12.975-04:00Rapid changes in racial/ethnic composition in Houston and DetroitDoes white flight still happen? Perhaps the rapid changes in racial/ethnic composition today would be better described by another term, nonetheless, rapid changes do seem to occur in many large American cities.<br />
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Here's a look at how these changes have occurred (between 2000 and 2010) in two cities, Detroit and Houston.<br />
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Detroit has been used as a textbook historic example of "white flight", having gone from overwhelming white to overwhelming non-white (mostly black) in the last century. This seems to have gone hand in hand with inner city decline, which continues today, spreading into more outlying neighbourhoods. Much of the census tracts experiencing rapid changes in racial composition are probably the result of Hispanics and especially blacks moving to these areas and out of the inner city.<br />
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Houston is rather different, while Detroit saw essentially no population change in its metropolitan area, Houston is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country. However, 93% of its population increase is the result of an increase in the population of its various visible minority groups, which now make up 59.5% of the metropolitan area's population. The 1.1 million in visible minority population added in the last decade had to be housed somewhere, creating potential for rapid changes in ethnic composition.<br />
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So lets look at which census tracts have had the share of the population that are visible minorities increase by over 20 percentages points (ex from 55% VM to 75% VM).<br />
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Starting with Detroit, with census tracts where blacks have seen the biggest increase in population share in blue, Hispanics in orange, and Asians in red.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDkyUt1q6X-mIe5lK5kEuUb2U7Z6ziUTinB-LbnwLp_jNWS6v7tdpctdzVKZZC2ba_R1TwmmEg3OK0tGQY56M4RvzO4WuzY2fvh8bQTDlsz-UCx_oa1hz8iHfEotB7Ot_XF183IuppvrU/s1600/VM+Detroit+ethnicity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="501" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDkyUt1q6X-mIe5lK5kEuUb2U7Z6ziUTinB-LbnwLp_jNWS6v7tdpctdzVKZZC2ba_R1TwmmEg3OK0tGQY56M4RvzO4WuzY2fvh8bQTDlsz-UCx_oa1hz8iHfEotB7Ot_XF183IuppvrU/s640/VM+Detroit+ethnicity.png" width="640" /></a></div>
If are familiar with Detroit, you will notice that many of these are neighbourhoods just beyond areas that were minority dominated in 2000. For instance, there is a semi complete ring around Detroit's city limits, to the NE and W of the city around 8 mile and Telegraph Road respectively, and both on the city and suburban side. On the inside of this ring are neighbourhoods of the city of Detroit, which in 2000 were usually 95%+ black*. To the outside of this ring are suburbs that were typically less than 5% black. The ring itself was about 85% white on the suburban side, less on the city side.<br />
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It seems like much of the black population of Detroit is moving into neighbourhoods that are just 1-2 miles further out and only a bit newer. There are still blacks moving to areas further out THOUGH, such as Westland, Canton, Van Buren and Wixom. Other areas that experienced increases include parts of Inkster and Southfield, which has already had a black majority in 2000, and parts of Farmington Hills adjacent to Southfield.<br />
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There is a similar pattern with Hispanics, though on a much smaller scale since they make up a smaller part of the overall population, with big increases in their population share on the outer edge of the existing hispanic communities in SW Detroit and northern Pontiac.<br />
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Asians saw large increases in their population share in communities that already had relatively significant Asian populations, in Hamtramck, Troy, and rapidly growing parts of Canton.<br />
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In the case of Detroit, not all areas that experienced an increase in the share of minorities experienced a decrease in the number of whites. There were a few cases where both the white and minority population increased, but the increase in the number of minorities sufficiently outpaced the increase in the number of whites that the minority share nonetheless increased by >20%. Such areas are mapped in white below.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkcSvhxObfZFdKLu-HJTP06I0E-r63nENJY-er7HcFUf2hDh1RNLbHJNWI_21CIt6qVn8jyVLGb9CI7u5j8Oba1d_MPJGoxUay4PavIML_BS4NQGy50gXRNpFVqWkQHLMeRp3o10EP9Ro/s1600/VM+Detroit+dW.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="501" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkcSvhxObfZFdKLu-HJTP06I0E-r63nENJY-er7HcFUf2hDh1RNLbHJNWI_21CIt6qVn8jyVLGb9CI7u5j8Oba1d_MPJGoxUay4PavIML_BS4NQGy50gXRNpFVqWkQHLMeRp3o10EP9Ro/s640/VM+Detroit+dW.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Areas where the white population decreased by up to 25% are shown in pink, and areas where the white population decreased by over 25% are shown in red. So in the inner suburbs, these changes have been driven by a large decrease in whites and large increase in minorities, and areas where both increased are limited to suburbs further out.<br />
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So how does this compare to Houston?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyp4rKfGduz8EJyxGe3cGNcYaXyQIexTVjWXiUXDKWHvM0ab65T4Wgm8oO03YGnlm8Lssq25FiyqNkyw0JCHZqTD5vVnPCQ040dgbcZBuJmszXr4WtCW5jyXLSxSHk37D7Ephpjg9yqFc/s1600/Vm+Houston+ethnicity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="495" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyp4rKfGduz8EJyxGe3cGNcYaXyQIexTVjWXiUXDKWHvM0ab65T4Wgm8oO03YGnlm8Lssq25FiyqNkyw0JCHZqTD5vVnPCQ040dgbcZBuJmszXr4WtCW5jyXLSxSHk37D7Ephpjg9yqFc/s640/Vm+Houston+ethnicity.png" width="640" /></a></div>
In Houston, like with Detroit, these changes have generally occurred in a ring between the existing minority dominated areas and white outer suburbs, however, due to the significantly higher minority % of Houston (and more whites closer to the core west of Downtown), this ring is pushed further out, sometimes reaching the suburban fringe.<br />
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Which minority drives the increase follows somewhat similar patterns to Detroit.<br />
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Much of the city of Houston's Asian population are in the SW of the city, and the big increases in the share of Asians have been in the SW suburbs like Sugar Land and Cinco Ranch. Hispanics are the dominant group in SE Houston and one of the areas where their share is rapidly increasing are SE suburbs like Pasadena, South Houston. Hispanics account for 62% of Houston's population growth, so it's not surprising that they are the most rapidly growing minority group in the greatest number of neighbourhoods.<br />
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In any case, the minorities in Houston are less segregated from each other (and from whites) than in Detroit with many areas having several minorities well represented.<br />
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Here's second map for Houston (with a black outline so that the areas in question stand out more against light grey subdivisions and industrial areas).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6igZCsfiIwbbYK6Y-EQe92RhOL3IlT7nDkY0CGrlrV59M4x2e9ln_SLUNzdBcYyEihsXzQmkOa9YY3ivyqxO7xyNWEqxRFpMoOTrHNby5Y9VYWlLW677Wm1TjXrMCGGHhyphenhyphenhP5xCSmuWQ/s1600/VM+Houston+dW.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="493" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6igZCsfiIwbbYK6Y-EQe92RhOL3IlT7nDkY0CGrlrV59M4x2e9ln_SLUNzdBcYyEihsXzQmkOa9YY3ivyqxO7xyNWEqxRFpMoOTrHNby5Y9VYWlLW677Wm1TjXrMCGGHhyphenhyphenhP5xCSmuWQ/s640/VM+Houston+dW.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Compared to Detroit, there are much more areas that have experienced a 20% increase in minority share while also increasing the white population, again mostly in outer suburbs. However, Houston still has a lot of more close in suburban areas where the large increase in minorities was accompanied with a large decrease in the white population.<br />
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*These areas may have seen a big decrease in the number of whites remaining, but even if they go from 5% white to 1% white, the share of whites has only decreased by 4 percentage points, much less than the 20% required to show up on the map. I don't consider this a flaw with my methodology though, since in such neighbourhoods, the racial transition is just about complete, and what I'm interested in are areas that are still changing rapidly.NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6280651494861275776.post-46302049016827984112015-01-03T00:18:00.002-05:002015-07-12T17:57:59.752-04:00Amsterdam area weighted densityAs someone who's interested in the density distribution patterns of cities, and who <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2014/03/toronto-and-chicago-density-comparison.html">has</a> <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2014/03/san-francisco-and-los-angeles-density.html">frequently</a> <a href="http://swontariourbanist.blogspot.ca/2014/02/densities-of-montreal-and-philadelphia.html">compared</a> census tract data of Canadian and American cities, I've often wondered how cities in other parts of the world would compare. The problem is usually finding data at a level comparable to census tracts, rather than just much larger city districts, which smooth out the density highs and lows and lead to lower <a href="http://austinzoning.typepad.com/austincontrarian/2008/03/perceived-densi.html">weighted density</a> numbers.<br />
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Well, <a href="http://citypopulation.de/Netherlands.html">citypopulation</a> does have some data for certain cities, including the Randstad Region of the Netherlands, a densely populated region of about 6-7 million people that includes the cities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht.<br />
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Whether or not this can be considered a single agglomeration is somewhat tricky. Land use policies designed to protected limited high quality agricultural lands have prevented many cities from running into one another like they would in other parts of the world, nonetheless I've attempted to approximate an area centered on Amsterdam that would be relatively equivalent to North American urban areas.<br />
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The methodology was to define the Amsterdam urban area as all contiguous tracts with densities above 500 people per square mile. This is the density threshold used to define US urban areas, although the US Census Bureau uses block groups (smaller than census tracts) and allows for connecting urbanized clusters that are separated by a sufficiently small stretch of rural densities under certain conditions. I've also included obviously built up areas with few residents such as the port and airport of Amsterdam, and all areas completely surrounded by urbanized tracts.<br />
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These are the approximate boundaries of the resulting area, stretching from Lisse through Haarlem to Heiloo in the Western section and to Wormerveer, Weesp and Kuderstaart in the Amsterdam section.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWbJ_i3UDTggV4IXyXz8xoYyrmcpsMVFI-P_ANijvN6OPNF3OhVzMBKJHyqCDtJlwrRsjYoK4Uiu2SEBgZvA5p-GJCjRnVK3738bWKpSm6BaET262_tPy0p5i2iAxqVRa2RvQWzUWXEsU/s1600/Amsterdam+urban+area.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="600" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWbJ_i3UDTggV4IXyXz8xoYyrmcpsMVFI-P_ANijvN6OPNF3OhVzMBKJHyqCDtJlwrRsjYoK4Uiu2SEBgZvA5p-GJCjRnVK3738bWKpSm6BaET262_tPy0p5i2iAxqVRa2RvQWzUWXEsU/s640/Amsterdam+urban+area.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Stats:<br />
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Population: 1,702,825<br />
Weighted Density: 21,990 ppsm (people per square mile)<br />
<a href="http://www.demographia.com/db-hyperdense.htm">Population above 50,000 ppsm</a>: 162,330<br />
Population above 20,000 ppsm: 669,760 <br />
Population above 10,000 ppsm: 1,330,010<br />
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The average tract has a population of 3468, which is sufficiently close to American and Canadian census tracts which average around 4000-5000 people.<br />
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And now for the density graphs, with a comparison to Toronto.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqHnBApGs_5WaSHX18yDBD0c7nCSl0jiXTDPEUFDi-Ep4sfF-M_bD7nBpuoY3423pOTbWExZPBZGrShYe19eR4e1wdYpVKDNn4PF5asPecSWxMeD9dZtrmQgmOkjddHApWkqs3rTSBCrA/s1600/Amsterdam+TOronto+total.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqHnBApGs_5WaSHX18yDBD0c7nCSl0jiXTDPEUFDi-Ep4sfF-M_bD7nBpuoY3423pOTbWExZPBZGrShYe19eR4e1wdYpVKDNn4PF5asPecSWxMeD9dZtrmQgmOkjddHApWkqs3rTSBCrA/s640/Amsterdam+TOronto+total.png" width="640" /></a></div>
Despite having a third of the population, Amsterdam has a comparable number of people living at high densities as Toronto. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHESnDQ29aLZwXZrrZ0CRFGOfBuw9UEGj18hD7GUpUv9lYxEQQ2GfR_hrp6T3ofNvhDGmnRQw-GANduE9lrUE9QLYNu41fjv2JKGvZMpbnZQ3lPBtIUqYh5GBuLs9jLPGbIvVgrwmz5qw/s1600/Amsterdam+Toronto+%25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="359" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHESnDQ29aLZwXZrrZ0CRFGOfBuw9UEGj18hD7GUpUv9lYxEQQ2GfR_hrp6T3ofNvhDGmnRQw-GANduE9lrUE9QLYNu41fjv2JKGvZMpbnZQ3lPBtIUqYh5GBuLs9jLPGbIvVgrwmz5qw/s640/Amsterdam+Toronto+%25.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The densest parts of Amsterdam appear to be in a ring surrounding the innermost part of the historic centre, especially to the west of it, consisting mostly of rows of buildings about 5 storeys tall. Like most cities, the innermost part is more dominated by commercial uses, so the population density is not as high as the built density would suggest.<br />
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The more common densities of about 20,000 ppsm seem to be mostly 2-3 storey rowhouse neighbourhoods that make up much of the outer neighbourhoods of Amsterdams, and the nearby small cities and towns.<br />
<br />NickDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07006815196885883516noreply@blogger.com0